U.S. Support of Ukraine Putsch Payback for Syria?

As tens of thousands of Russian troops mass on Ukraine's border and secessionist unrest flares in the Russian-majority Crimea, now is a good time to stand back and consider the possibility that this ham-handed putsch, almost one-week old and rapidly fraying, that was implemented with fulsome U.S. support, is part of an effort to punish Russia for its defense of Syria, in general, and its "checkmate" of the Obama administration's rush to Tomahawk Damascus last summer, in particular.

Toward that end, allow me to quote a piece -- "Was the Ukraine Coup America’s Main Event at the Sochi Olympics?" -- written by Peter Lee that appeared yesterday on the Counterpunch web site:

[A]n alternate possibility is that the United States did it [back the putsch] for revenge, to punish Putin for not going along with the US program on Syria. 

That’s not great because, if so, the decision might have been made out of short-sighted spite, and the West might have taken sole custody of the Ukrainian tar baby just as its finances are teetering to collapse and the split between eastern and western Ukrainians threatens to turn into a permanent rift. 

It would be…ironic! There’s that word again!—if punishing Putin over Syria turned Ukraine into another Syria. 

I don’t think this revenge scenario is too outlandish. President Obama seems to be a man who likes his revenge served cold—icy cold—and maybe underneath that controlled façade he was itching to show Putin that Russia could not lightly defy US demands to withdraw support from Assad and collapse the Syrian government. I believe personal disdain and the need to assert his credentials as world’s numero uno big boss drives President Obama’s foreign policy with regard to Putin, with the Chinese leadership (ever since he was subjected to a finger-wagging tirade by China’s chief climate negotiator for America’s botched outing at the Copenhagen summit in 2010), and of course, his counterproductive crusade—now in its third dismal year with a promise of further escalation– to destroy Syria and further destabilize the Middle East in order to punish Bashar Assad for refusing to go when Obama told him to go. 

One hopes that twelve-dimensional chess is guiding US moves in the Ukraine. But if that policy is in the hands of a crude neo-con like “Fuck the EU” Victoria Nuland, maybe we’re looking at another one of those “nobody could have foreseen” bloody foreign policy botches that the US seems to specialize in nowadays. 

And Putin might have the last laugh, withholding Russia’s promised contribution of $15 billion while the EU scrambles to come up with the $30 billion Ukraine needs to get through the year (amazingly, the US has to date made no commitment to provide financial aid, something the EU is probably noticing; and thinking Thanks a Billion! Not! Vicky Nuland, since the aggressive US strategy blew up the transitional government negotiated by the EU that might have kept Russia in the game and on the hook).

With the putsch parliament clearing its choices for an interim government in a faux-Occupy consensus charade on the Maidan, the machinery is clunking into place to accept an IMF bailout along with its destabilizing, dehumanizing grab bag of austerity mandates.

The IMF needs the fiction of a "legal" government in place in order to begin negotiations on terms of the bailout. Yanukovych, now apparently in Russia, made a statement denying the legality of his removal. The U.S./EU, based on statements made yesterday by John Kerry, is standing behind the putschists.

Regardless of the legality of the yet-to-be seated interim government, and assuming that Russia does not intervene militarily to protect Russian-speaking Ukrainians, whose language is no longer officially recognized by the putsch parliament, the one insurmountable roadblock for the putschists is the IMF bailout.

This is from a story today by Annie Lowrey and Michael Gordon, "Policy Makers Devise Plans to Provide Money to Kiev":

Policy makers are already hotly debating a rescue package for Ukraine, with conversations about the economy dominating discussions on the sidelines of the Group of 20 meeting of economic officials in Sydney. 

The country’s finances are now “on the verge of collapse,” the Washington-based Institute of International Finance, which represents major banks around the world, warned in a report released this week.

“With the authorities mostly preoccupied with handling the political upheaval, economic policies have remained in limbo,” said Ondrej Schneider and Lubomir Mitov of the finance institute. “Risks of prolonged political uncertainty still remain substantial, however, raising odds of delays in implementing reforms with potentially disastrous consequences for financial stability and growth.”

***

“We will be ready to engage, ready to help,” Ms. Lagarde said this weekend. “We, of course, try to go further and play the catalytic role that the I.M.F. typically plays in such situations.” 

The I.M.F. is expected to insist that Ukraine raise domestic gas prices, cut government spending, tackle corruption and allow the country’s currency to float on the international markets.

What the IMF will catalyze is more street protests. But this time dopey Yanukovych will not be the target; it will be the putschists themselves. Then the reviled police or the Right Sector "self-defense" forces will be mustered to beat down the crowds in the Maidan. And this time there will be no complaints from John Kerry or William Hague about the rights of peaceful protesters.