Geneva II

The Geneva II peace talks on Syria begin in three weeks and a lot is in play in the Middle East. Majid bin Muhammad al-Majid, head of the Al Qaeda-affiliated Abdullah Azzam Brigades and a Saudi, has been taken into custody. The Adbullah Azzam Brigades had claimed responsibility for the November suicide bombing of the Iranian Embassy in Beirut, and they were suspected of firing a missile into northern Israel on Sunday. Anne Barnard has the story, "Lebanon Arrests Leader of Qaeda-Linked Group, Reports Say":

An Iranian national security official, Alaeddin Boroujerdi, on Wednesday praised the Lebanese security forces for apprehending Mr. Majid, and blamed him for the embassy bombing. He also urged the Lebanese government to consider the fact that “the main element in the operation is of Saudi nationality,” Iran’s semiofficial Fars News Agency reported.

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The Iranian official, Mr. Boroujerdi, said that Lebanese security forces had arrested two people, including someone involved in “the assassination of the Hezbollah leader in Lebanon,” an apparent reference to the shooting death in December of Hassane Laqees, a senior Hezbollah militant. It was unclear whether he was blaming the Abdullah Azzam Brigades or Saudi Arabia for killing Mr. Laqees. Citing the killers’ professionalism, Hezbollah had blamed the hit on Israel rather than Sunni jihadist groups. 

Mr. Majid’s detention was potentially sensitive in a divided Lebanon, especially under a caretaker government that has been in place for months because of political stalemate. The army has tried to maintain its reputation as the only largely neutral security agency, even as it remains too weak to challenge Hezbollah’s independent militia, and Lebanese Sunnis increasingly see it as leaning toward the Shiite party.

The Iranians are still barred from attending Geneva II, ostensibly because they won't sign off on Geneva I and the concept of a Baathist-opposition transitional government with full executive powers, even though it is broadly accepted that no deal is possible without Iranian participation. Aron Lund breaks it down in "Can Iran Go to Geneva II Without Endorsing Geneva I?" on his Syria in Crisis blog. Lund seems to think that endorsing Geneva I is meaningless and that Iran could do so at anytime without compromising its bargaining position. He seems to think that Iran is holding out for further concessions by the United States.

One thing that jumped out at me from Lund's piece is the large number of nations attending Geneva II:

Apart from Syria’s government and opposition, the Geneva II guest list includes representatives of the United Nations, the Arab League, the European Union, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, the United States, Russia, France, the United Kingdom, China, Algeria, Brazil, Canada, Denmark, Egypt, Germany, India, Indonesia, Iraq, Italy, Japan, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Morocco, Norway, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates.

The more countries attending, the more likely it is the event will be nothing but ceremonial, a performance for the cameras. This does not preclude that possibility that a substantive agreement can be reached at a meeting that is not part of the formally recognized mega-gathering and then brought to the larger group for a sign-off. It just seems like a long shot to me.