NFL Week 20: Conference Championship Round

We've arrived at that point in the season which is really the last Sunday for the regular football fan. After the NFC and AFC Championships are decided this weekend, the National Football League enters its High Holy Days, culminating in the most sacred day on the American calendar, Super Bowl Sunday. At which point it is something other than a NFL game. It is more a celebration of excess and hyperbole -- the partying fans who can afford the thousands of dollars to travel and lodge at the Super Bowl host city; the reverential video biographies of key players; the ad buys and TV commercial premieres and corporate executive luxury suites -- all presented in that peculiarly American vernacular that the world has come to know and loathe: bombast cloaking an infantile narcissism engaged in profligate consumption.

But tomorrow the athletes will still be visible through the mass of machinery that it is American capitalism. The Championship games are most of the time far better than the Super Bowl itself. This was certainly true when I was growing up; less so in the last ten years. The NFL has managed to refine its product.

Action begins tomorrow at noon in Denver. The line on the AFC Championship Game is Broncos -5, and that is probably charitable to the Patriots. My only bad pick last week was the Chargers. I went with San Diego because I was so taken with how the Chargers ran the ball in Cincinnati. Granted, Ryan Mathews was sidelined most of the Denver game because of an ankle injury, but Danny Woodhead, who did a lot of damage to the Bengals, couldn't get anything going against the Broncos defense, and neither could Ronnie Brown. To make a long story short, I am impressed with Denver's defensive line. In order for the Patriots to win they have to run the ball with great success. Ridley and Blount and Vereen all need to have big games. Why? Because Brady doesn't have a dominant receiving corps. I don't see New England's rushing attack keeping them in the game. Take Denver. (Oddly, I will be cheering for the baleful Belichik, my go-to bete noire. For me, Peyton Manning personifies corporate America even more so than Tiger Beat Tom Brady.)

The big match-up is the NFC Championship Game where the Seahawks and 49ers meet for the third time this season. I woke up this morning thinking how evenly matched these teams are. Seattle has a superior defensive secondary; San Francisco, better linebackers. The respective defensive lines are about even with Seattle possessing more depth. On offense, San Francisco's line is superior, as are the 49ers tight end and receivers. But Seattle has the edge at running back, though San Francisco has greater depth at the position. This brings us to the quarterbacks. Colin Kaepernick is playing lights out. The last month-plus he has been the X-factor for the 49ers. For Russell Wilson it has been just the opposite. He struggled through the end of the season and looked off in the win against the Saints. The edge here goes to San Francisco.

So on paper -- because of a more potent offense -- one should go with the 49ers. Why then have the Seahawks stayed at -3.5 throughout the week? The 12th Man! Seattle's home field is like no other. You saw that in the second half against New Orleans. Drew Brees had to burn his timeouts because of the noise; he didn't have any left in the final minute of the game, which cost him a trip to the championship round.

Kaepernick has not been able to master the 12th Man. It could be argued that with a difficult road win at Lambeau Field in single-degree weather under his belt, he is primed to silence the mob at CenturyLink. Of one thing I feel certain: Kaepernick will throw an interception or two. He did in both the Green Bay and Carolina playoff games. In the past, when he did this at Seattle, he was unable to recover. Yes, Kaepernick is a different player now. But I trust Richard Sherman and the rest of the Seahawk defense. And I trust the 12th Man. Russell Wilson will right himself -- he has always had solid games against San Fran -- and Marshawn Lynch will run with strength and purpose. The survey of opinion provided by the Sporting News favors the Seahawks because of Seattle's home-field advantage and the wear and tear of three road playoff games beginning to take its toll on San Francisco. I'm taking Seattle. Onward to the Super Bowl!