NFL Week 22: Super Bowl XLVIII

The official wisdom as conveyed by Bleacher Report has Denver beating Seattle in this Sunday's Super Bowl by a score of 31 to 23. The betting line is Denver minus three, which means that the line has moved a half-point away from Seattle since it was first announced following the dramatic Seahawks victory over the 49ers in the NFC Championship.

The thinking is that in a contest that features the best defense (Seahawks) against the best offense (Broncos) the game will come down to how well the Seattle offense does against the Denver defense. I think this is the right way to look at it. But where the analysts at Bleacher Report think that the Broncos defensive line led by Terrance Knighton will be up to the task of shutting down Marshawn Lynch, I foresee that the Golden Bear running back who got his NFL start playing in frigid Buffalo will find some holes and crack off some good runs. Lynch will have a pair of fresh, powerful legs from two weeks between games. As a fellow working man who I spoke with in the Starbucks queue this morning said, "If Marshawn Lynch gets 100 yards, we win." I agree.

The argument against this is that Denver has already in the playoffs shut down prodigious ground games of San Diego and New England. But I would argue that the Chargers were without the services of their premiere tailback Ryan Mathews (he ran the ball only a few times in the first half before going to the sidelines with a bad ankle), while the Patriots gave up on using LeGarrette Blount before the second quarter was finished. This will not be the case in East Rutherford on Sunday. The additional wrinkle that the Denver defense will have to account for is a quarterback, Russell Wilson, who can run. Darell Bevell will undoubtedly script some quarterback runs in his offensive game plan. Percy Harvin  is another X-factor in Seattle's favor.

Finally, there is the ultimate X-factor that favors Seattle: Turnovers. The Seahawks defense, whether through strip-sacks or picks, consistently generates turnovers. Peyton Manning throws a lot of balls. Seattle will force turnovers and their defense very well may even put points on the board. This, combined with a Seahawks offense potent enough to keep Manning on the sidelines for clock-chewing chunks of time, leads me to advise you to take the Seahawks as the next Super Bowl Champions!