U.S. Patriot Missiles, F-16s in Jordan

Anne Barnard in a frontpage story, "In Syrian Victory, Hezbollah Risks Broader Fight," engages in what can be taken as pro forma Western finger wagging: Hezbollah can expect reprisals for its role in the rebels' defeat at Qusayr. What makes such reporting slanted is that it parrots the Obama administration's rhetoric: Hezbollah and Iran are acting as aggressors by inserting fighters into another country's conflict. But what is rarely mentioned is 1) the West and its allies among the Gulf monarchies are propping up the rebels; in fact, a compelling argument can be made that without Saudi and Western support the opposition promptly collapses, and 2) Hezbollah and Iran have concluded that they cannot survive if Syria collapses; in other words, the outcome of Syria's civil war affects all Shiite power structures in the Middle East.

For a sober, unbiased assessment of what's going on in Syria, check out yesterday's Democracy Now! interview of Patrick Cockburn:

In her story this morning Bernard reports that talks between Russia and the United States over a peace conference remain stymied:

A meeting convened by American, Russian and United Nations officials in Geneva aimed at finding a way to hold peace talks was adjourned in failure, with no agreement on even who among the Syrian antagonists would attend. Lakhdar Brahimi, the special Syria envoy of the United Nations, said that the officials would hold another meeting June 25 and that “evidently, there is still a lot of work to do.”

Apparently Jordan has requested U.S. Patriot missiles and F-16s:

Reflecting concern about a spillover in the war, Jordanian officials said that they had asked the United States for Patriot antimissile batteries and fighter jets to bolster their defense abilities in the event of an attack from Syria, their northern neighbor. A Pentagon spokesman, Army Col. Steve Warren, confirmed the request and said Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel “will favorably consider it.” Further underscoring the volatility of the conflict, Syria state news media suggested that the fight there might not be completely over, and said the military was still sweeping northern Qusayr for militants.

This is not a good sign. It is an indication that the West is committed to widening the war. Why would Syria attack Jordan? It makes no sense. The only thing that I can think of is that the U.S. is positioning its forces to deal with the aftermath of another Israeli attack on Syria. In such a case, Syria will be under a great deal of pressure to respond. Once Syria responds to Israel's aggression, the United States will have its justification for direct intervention. The thinking in the West must be that this is what it's going to take to bring Assad to the table weak enough to agree to dismemberment of Syria and relinquishing Baathist control of the government.

A provocation is needed. And all one need do is look at breaking news this morning that rebels have captured a Golan Heights border crossing. Isabel Kershner reporting from Jerusalem says that:

Rebels fighting the Syrian government on Thursday seized control of the only border crossing operated by United Nations peacekeeping forces along the Israeli-Syrian cease-fire line in the Golan Heights, according to the Israeli military and rebel forces. Israeli forces were placed on alert in the sensitive and disputed area as the violence of the civil war threatened to spill over into Israeli-held territory.

The Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA) says that the government has retaken the crossing, and so does the BBC.

The game of war continues: The U.S. condemns Syria for reasserting control in its own city, and Britain and France assert conclusive proof exists that the Syrian government used sarin gas.

For all of Obama's feebleness, the one thing I believe is that he will not be bum rushed into a world war in the Middle East. Maybe I'm wrong, but I think after surging in Afghanistan and intervening in Libya he's learned his lesson. The counterpoint here is that he is not -- to be charitable -- a super-strong leader, and that he will not hold out if there is unanimity in the West and the Gulf for direct military intervention.