Al-Assir vs. Lebanese Army + Qatar's New Absolute Ruler

Agence France-Presse is reporting this morning of heavy fighting in Damascus' surrounding suburbs as Syrian government forces attempt to clear rebels from approaches to the city; also, the rebels have apparently launched an "offensive" against government-held neighborhoods in western Aleppo; but it appears to be more a cosmetic display of force.

Reuters has a story this morning about a rift between Al Qaeda jihadis fighting in Syria. Al Nusra Front is at odds with Islamic State of Iraq over who is in control -- just another example of the hillbilly nature of the jihadi opposition.

Anne Barnard has a story, "Civilians Flee and Soldiers Die in Clashes in Lebanon," about the outcome of the battle in Sidon between the Lebanese Army and radical Sheik Ahmad al-Assir’s militia. Al-Assir is on the lamb, but the Daily Star of Lebanon reports that the Lebanese Army is mopping of his gunmen.

Barnard hints at a connection between al-Assir and the Saudi-backed mainstream Future Movement:

The mainstream Sunni party, the Future Movement, led by the powerful Sidon-based family of Rafik Hariri, the former prime minister assassinated in 2005, has often condemned the cleric’s sectarian rhetoric and use of arms, though Hezbollah supporters accuse the party of secretly backing him. 

But in Sidon on Monday, even Future supporters said they did not want to see him defeated, suggesting his support may run deeper. One Sunni man said he had been tempted many times to join Mr. Assir’s militia because it made him feel protected “as a Sunni.” 

A few blocks away, a Shiite resident and Hezbollah supporter, Inaya Haydar, said Mr. Assir should be arrested, even if it meant heavy fighting. 

“Let it take as much as it needs,” Ms. Haydar, a nurse, said after staying up all night to the sounds of gunfire, rocket-propelled grenades and shells and watching from her window as wounded people poured into Hamoud Hospital. 

The cleric, she said, had shown his hypocrisy by calling on Hezbollah to disarm its militia, a perennial issue in Lebanese politics. “What is he doing now?” she said. “He is armed too, and against the Lebanese Army.”

As Secretary of State John Kerry barters with Saudi monarchs over the future body count in Syria, Qatar's absolute ruler, Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani, has announced his abdication. He is handing power to his 33-year-old son Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani. Rob Norland has the story:

The Qataris have managed, as well, to have friends among hard-line Islamist groups — a State Department cable released through WikiLeaks criticized their timidity against terrorists — while at the same time serving as the longtime hosts of America’s biggest military base in the Middle East, the forward headquarters of the Pentagon’s Central Command, at Al Udeid Air Base. 

“The Qataris’ approach to things is very ambitious, punch above their weight, be involved in as many arenas as possible, but have that core American military relationship as their security backstop, and then have relationships with all sorts of groups and people,” said Mr. Gause, who is affiliated with the Doha office of Brookings. 

With so many irons in such a diversity of fires, the emir’s stand-down is something of a mystery. The biggest question is what will happen to Prime Minister Hamad. He has not only been foreign minister since 1992, before the emir seized power from his father, but is also widely viewed as the emir’s bagman in arranging that coup. 

“It is just inconceivable that H.B.J. could remain in office with a 33-year-old emir the age of his own sons,” said a longtime resident here, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, mindful of that clause in the Constitution that makes it a crime to criticize the emir.

A lot is in play these days. Russia, Snowden, the Taliban, Qatar, Lebanon -- the future of the Middle East.