Hallowed Ritual Meant to Convey Activity and Good Faith

Yesterday Lakhdar Brahimi announced that there would be no Geneva II peace talks in November. Brahimi said that he would meet again with U.S. and Russian diplomats at the end of the month to try to put something together. But after that date one wonders how long Brahimi will stick around. There has been no movement on the most basic issue of who should attend -- which rebel groups, which nations. Nick Cumming-Bruce and Rick Gladstone have the story, "Diplomats Fail to Agree on Details for Syria Peace Talks":

Mr. Brahimi made it clear that the lack of preparation on the part of Syria’s opposition was an acute and immediate cause for delaying a peace conference. “They are divided, that’s no secret for anyone, they are facing all sorts of problems,” he said. 

The opposition National Coalition has no leverage over the armed groups battling Mr. Assad, particularly the jihadist militants linked to Al Qaeda who are among the most effective fighters. They have said that any insurgents who participate in Geneva peace talks would be regarded as traitors. 

Mr. Brahimi also acknowledged that the diplomats had been unable to agree on whether Iran, Mr. Assad’s most important regional ally, would be invited to a peace conference. “Iran is definitely one of the issues that will be discussed further,” he said. 

Saudi Arabia, Iran’s regional rival and a major supporter of the Syrian insurgency, remains opposed to Iranian participation in peace talks. Western governments, recognizing Iran as an important participant, have appeared less resistant to Iran’s attendance. But diplomats say a major obstacle is Iran’s reluctance to endorse the communiqué of the first Geneva conference in June 2012, which called for a transition under a government formed by mutual consent. 

The question of Mr. Assad’s role in a transition government looms as a major obstacle. In a meeting with Mr. Brahimi in Damascus last week, Mr. Assad said “only the Syrian people are authorized to shape the future of Syria,” a formula that rejects American insistence that he step down as part of any peace process. “We are not going to Geneva to hand over power,” Syria’s information minister, Omran al-Zoubi, said on Monday, according to Syria’s official SANA news agency. “President Bashar al-Assad will remain head of state.”

Further talks in Geneva to prepare the way for a Geneva II summit are like Kerry shuttling between Netanyahu and Abbas, a hallowed ritual meant to convey activity and good faith while maintaining a status quo of perpetual war and occupation.

In a troubling sign, the odious Samantha Power was back in the news denigrating the Syrian government and questioning the accuracy of its declaration to the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons. The OPCW has said verification is on schedule and the Syrian government is complying. Once again this sets up the familiar conflict between the United States and an international agency responsible for administering a United Nations Security Council resolution. U.S. warmongering goes unsupported by its people, but it is supported by elites and the foreign governments that maintain those elites. So warmongering will continue.

This despite proof that the policy of fomenting war and rebellion is having the opposite effect of the overarching U.S. national security mission (at least as it is formulated for public consumption) of eradicating Al Qaeda and its affiliates. Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) continues to consolidate its hold on northern Syria. The caliphate springs up on the border of NATO.

Attempting to break the logjam, Russia is offering to host informal talks between the Syrian government and members of the opposition.

Since I have mentioned "a hallowed ritual meant to convey activity and good faith," I should note that yesterday was Election Day in the United States. There wasn't a whole lot to celebrate. Bill de Blasio, a progressive Democrat, won the New York City mayor's race in an impressive landslide. That's good news. Corporate Democrat and uber-Clintonite Terry McAuliffe was elected governor of Virginia over a Tea Party troglodyte Ken Cuccinelli. One can debate the merits of McAuliffe's victory. In Washington State, the bad news is that I-522, a GMO-labeling initiative, is headed for defeat. It shared the fate of last year's GMO-labeling initiative in California -- buried by a blizzard of negative advertising paid for by corporate behemoths like Monsanto and PepsiCo.

Warmongers Hemmed In

Next week is shaping up to be a momentous one. The United Nations General Assembly convenes and the United States House of Representatives, currently being led by the Tea Party caucus, will decide whether to shut down the government.

The news today is buzzing with the possibility of a deal between Obama and new Iranian president, Hassan Rouhani, over Iran's nuclear program. They will likely meet in New York City where both will be attending the General Assembly.

Meanwhile, Secretary of State John Kerry is proceeding along the same belligerent path he has trod from the beginning in relation to Syria, ignoring the unmistakable turn of events of the last two weeks since his Monday, September 9, faux pas during a London press conference opened the door for the Russian proposal for Syria to adopt the Convention on Chemical Weapons.

Michael Gordon has a good summary this morning of the effort underway, based on what Kerry says is indisputable proof of Syrian government guilt, to allow the Security Council the use of force if Syria does not comply with the agreement to get rid of its chemical weapons. To this end, Kerry is trying to isolate the Russians by getting the Chinese to join with the U.S., France and Britain in supporting Chapter VII sanctions. It's not going to happen.

The Obama Administration has its hands full: Iran, a Tea Party emboldened by its defeat of Obama's Authorization for the Use of Military Force looking to shut down the government, and, now, finding a plausible way to upend peace talks with Syria. This is from Gordon's story, "Kerry Presses Security Council to Act on Syrian Arsenal":

Mr. Kerry plans to meet next week with Mr. Lavrov and Lakhdar Brahimi, the United Nations envoy on the Syria crisis, to discuss planning for a possible peace conference. 

No date for a conference has been set, and Russia and the United States are at odds over who should attend. Russia, for example, has insisted that Iran should participate. The United States has opposed including Iran and said the “London 11,” a group of European and Arab nations that support the Syrian opposition, should attend.

Engaged in negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program makes it hard to deny them a place at the table in talks on Syria.

The Guardian had a story yesterday on Putin's take on Syria; it included this sensible question from the Russian president:

The Russian president also reiterated suspicions that the 21 August chemical attack near Damascus was carried out by rebels and not by forces loyal to Assad. 

"We talk all the time about the responsibility of Assad regime if it turns out that they did it, but nobody is asking about the responsibility of the rebels if they did it," said Putin. "We have all the reasons to believe it was a clever provocation."

The warmongers, it goes without saying, will do everything in their power to reassert the primacy of force. But with food stamps being axed by House Republicans, who at the same time are hurtling towards a collision in their quixotic effort to repeal Obamacare, the United States Government is in no position to threaten other countries.

Putin on American Exceptionalism

President Obama's speech Tuesday made a case for U.S. intervention in the Syrian civil war based on American exceptionalism:

Our ideals and principles, as well as our national security, are at stake in Syria, along with our leadership of a world where we seek to ensure that the worst weapons will never be used. America is not the world’s policeman. Terrible things happen across the globe, and it is beyond our means to right every wrong. But when, with modest effort and risk, we can stop children from being gassed to death and thereby make our own children safer over the long run, I believe we should act. That’s what makes America different. That’s what makes us exceptional. 

With humility, but with resolve, let us never lose sight of that essential truth.

Russian president Vladimir Putin responds today with an opinion piece in the New York Times:

My working and personal relationship with President Obama is marked by growing trust. I appreciate this. I carefully studied his address to the nation on Tuesday. And I would rather disagree with a case he made on American exceptionalism, stating that the United States’ policy is “what makes America different. It’s what makes us exceptional.” It is extremely dangerous to encourage people to see themselves as exceptional, whatever the motivation. There are big countries and small countries, rich and poor, those with long democratic traditions and those still finding their way to democracy. Their policies differ, too. We are all different, but when we ask for the Lord’s blessings, we must not forget that God created us equal.

American exceptionalism ties in with Manifest Destiny, a doctrine which justified gobbling up territory as the nation expanded westward in the nineteenth century, as well as the Old Testament notion of the Jews as Yahweh's chosen people. Noam Chomsky discussed at length during a Democracy Now! telephone interview that was broadcast yesterday how American exceptionalism runs through the post-war international order that was created with the founding of the United Nations.

The sense that I get reading the newspaper this morning is that the actors who have been fueling the conflict -- the Syrian National Coalition, Turkey, Israel, warhawks in the United States Government, et al. -- are disappointed in and dismissive of the Russian proposal to de-escalate the war by having Syria sign the international Convention on Chemical Weapons, which bans the manufacture, storage and use of the weapons. Look out for additional provocations that could justify the use of force.

But one great barrier to escalation that isn't going to collapse anytime soon is public opinion. A realignment is underway in American politics that will have repercussions in upcoming legislative struggles and election campaigns. The Tea Party has found common cause with Progressives. As I see it, the Democrats have more to lose than the GOP. Without the Progressives, the Dems are a party without a base. Obama's great success as a politician has been his ability to keep Progressives aligned, however loosely, with the Democratic National Committee. This is about to change.