The YPG/YPJ Have to Hold Afrin City

Rudaw reported yesterday, "Turkish forces advance, closing in on Afrin city," that the battle for Afrin has reached the point of a siege of the city. The Kurdish-led SDF responded by announcing a move of 1,700 fighters from the eastern Syrian province of Deir al-Zour. The SDF in Deir al-Zour are there primarily to guard the oil fields war booty coveted by the U.S.

Anne Barnard reports today from her office in Beirut that Turkey has requested that the U.S. block this troop transfer ("Turkey Asks U.S. to Stop Kurds From Shifting Fighters to Western Syria"). I would say that the chances of this happening are close to zero.

The Kurds of the YPG/YPJ have to hold Afrin because if they don't then they will have proven to be incapable of acting independently of the protection provided by U.S. air power and logistics. If Turkey and the CIA-trained Free Syrian Army triumph, then the Kurds will be seen as merely another mercenary proxy force that the U.S. exploits willy-nilly to achieve its objectives.

At this point the Turks appear to have all the advantage. They can lay siege to Afrin city indefinitely. Don't expect the same outrage over Afrin in the Western media as there is for East Ghouta.

Let's Keep Our Eyes Peeled for Another Bogus Chemical Weapons Attack in Syria

The New York Times editorial board is calling for the leadership of Syria, Russia and Iran to be tried for war crimes (see "Who Has Innocent Syrians’ Blood on Their Hands?") as it laments the lack of a broader U.S.-led UN-backed regime-change operation to collapse the Syrian government.

Jordan Shilton of Word Socialist Web Site answers that the U.S. has plenty of innocent Syrian blood on its hands (see "Syrian government offensive prompts calls for intensified US military intervention"):

When the battle shifted to Raqqa last summer, US war planes were slaughtering more than 100 innocent civilians every week as they dropped high-powered explosives on residential areas. In the end, to pursue its broader strategic goals of preventing Iran from consolidating control of eastern Syria and opening up a land corridor from Tehran to Damascus, Washington allowed thousands of ISIS fighters to escape Raqqa so they could take on pro-Assad forces.

Throughout both of these shameful episodes, which international rights groups criticized as war crimes, the Times and other establishment media mouthpieces not only buried reports of civilian casualties, not to mention images or videos from the war zone, but positively praised the US military for its supposed restraint in carrying out air strikes.

Elijah J Magnier sees the ongoing developments in Afrin as the beginning of the end for Rojava:

Only one month after the beginning of the “Olive Branch” operation, the Afrin administration began to understand the reality of the power struggle- but yet not completely. Russia is teaching the Kurds a lesson so that these understand the price of plying for favors from the US. The US feels impotent towards the Kurds and exposed, forced to reveal its plans for staying in Syria and for occupying a piece of its territory regardless of the defeat of ISIS. The Kurds can’t yet fully grasp the extent to which they are wood for the Syrian fire, caught between two superpowers.

In Syria, there are only two alternatives: either Moscow or Washington forces will remain in Syria (if the game remains rough), or they will cohabit as they did in Berlin after the Second World War.

The Afrin administration doesn’t understand that for every day that goes by there will be new Syrian demands. If the Kurds continue to resist these demands, Damascus will ask for further concessions and further withdrawal of the Kurds to the east of the Euphrates, to join the US forces (and remain as a burden on them). This is also allowing Turkey to be more determined in allowing the Syrian army to regain control of Afrin.

Although the central government in Damascus agreed to send several hundreds of local militants from Nubbl and Zahraa and other national forces as a preliminary support, it is likely that the negotiations over Afrin will continue until mid-March in Kazakhstan between Russia, Turkey, Iran and Syria (indirectly), discussing not only Afrin but also Idlib- unless the Kurds acknowledge without delay all of Damascus’s conditions. Otherwise, with every day that goes by Turkey increases its influence and occupies more territory in the enclave.

Russia is not expected to be satisfied with one hit against the US in Afrin but is accelerating the end of control by al-Qaeda and other militants (Faylaq al-Rahman and Jaish al-Islam) over al Ghouta, east of Damascus. The Russians would like to see the US alone (Russia considers Turkey is the lesser evil in Syria and can deal with it later) in Syria to point out its illegal presence and therefore illegal occupation of north east Syria, particularly when the remaining of ISIS concentration is situated within the area on the Syrian-Iraqi borders which is under the US control. The US forces are now looking like a force protecting the terrorist group and allowing it to continue its existence and operations in Syria and in Iraq.

Erdogan is promising to attack Afrin city within days. If this happens, and Afrin falls to the Turks/Free Syrian Army, Rojava will not be able to deny that for all intents and purposes it is but a fig leaf for the outlaw U.S. occupation of northeast Syria.

On the other hand, if the pro-Syrian Shiite militias entering Afrin are successful in blocking "Operation Olive Branch," then, as Magnier says, the Kurds will have to accommodate further Syrian demands.

So it doesn't look good for the Kurds. And if we accept Magnier's reasoning, what is bad for the Kurds is bad for the United States.

Anytime the U.S. is looking at the "jaws of defeat" it is always wise to consider the "make the problem bigger" scenario, a favorite page in the U.S. playbook. Here, as in the past, not to mention the signal offered by the NYT editorial, it would likely be in the form of an airstrike retaliating for alleged SAA chemical weapons use. Moon of Album warned of this last week.

There would be no support in the American electorate for such an attack. But people are distracted with the Mueller indictment -- we are being told basically that all social media is compromised by Russian bots -- and the popular uprising to ban the sale of assault weapons. So if McMaster wanted, and he was able to convince Trump to front it, he could get away with it now.

Tillerson Signals Long Anticipated U.S. Betrayal of the Kurds

The news from Tillerson's meeting today in Turkey with foreign minister Mevlut Cavusoglu is not good. The oft-anticipated U.S. sellout of its Kurdish partners in northern Syria appears to be in the works.

Rudaw is reporting that

The United States and Turkey are “locking arms” in Syria, said Tillerson in a joint press conference with his Turkish counterpart Mevlut Cavusoglu. “We’re not going to act alone any longer… We are going to act together from this point forward.”

They will begin in Manbij, the northern Syrian city under control of US-ally the Manbij Military Council and the Kurdish YPG, a force Ankara alleges is a terror group.

The US promised the YPG will leave the Manbij region, Cavusoglu stated. And once the Kurdish forces are gone, Turkey will be able to take steps forward with its NATO ally, he said.

Tillerson asserted that they “share the same objective in Syria” – to defeat ISIS, stabilize the country in order to allow refugees to return home, and support a political solution for a unified Syria, with no internal demarcations dividing the country.

They will closely coordinate on the final defeat of ISIS “and other terror groups” inside Syria, Tillerson added.

Bloomberg does not mention the "The U.S. promised that the YPG will vacate Manbij" statement by Cavusoglu:

The incursion has created an unprecedented military face-off between the two largest armies in NATO, with U.S. forces fighting alongside the YPG in northeastern Syria while Turkey attacks members of the group to the west. The two sides said the top priority of the working group established Friday will be addressing Manbij, a town in northern Syria held by the YPG with the backing of American forces. Erdogan has threatened to attack the town.

Manbij should stay under the control of the U.S. or its allied forces, Tillerson said.

“We have made clear our expectations from the U.S. in terms of its support for the YPG and the fight against terrorist groups,” Cavusoglu said. “We’d like to think that our vital security concerns are taken seriously.” He said previous promises made to Turkey by the U.S. were broken, but that the two sides had “reached an understanding to normalize our relationship again."

Previously, Tillerson has spoken of allowing the Turks to create a buffer zone in northern Syria in territory that is now Rojava.

Something is definitely happening here. There are contradictory reports that the Syrian government will join the Kurds in battling the invading Turks in Afrin. It seems Turkey's "Operation Olive Branch" is a slow, methodical grind. Turkey is peeling off villages. Syrian Observatory for Human Rights estimates that Turkey now controls 7% of the canton.

For an excellent overview of what is going on with the Kurds and Turkey, as well as a fulsome defense of Rojava, read "Defending Afrin" by ROSA BURÇ  and KEREM SCHAMBERGER.