Tories Lose Another Election. General Election Likely in October.

The other day I proclaimed a desire to mention Brexit only rarely, the reason being that Brexit talk moves endlessly nowhere. There is a lot of noise but at the end of the day the Tories are still in power and the UK is part of the EU.

But yesterday something consequential happened. The Conservative Party lost a by-election in a Welsh Tory stronghold, Brecon and Radnorshire (see Stephen Castle's "Special Election Defeat Poses a Thorny Problem for Boris Johnson"), and Boris Johnson's governing majority in parliament is effectively reduced to a single MP.

While the press wants to label the by-election a referendum on Boris, more likely it is a one-off since the incumbent Conservative MP, Chris Davies, was recalled for falsifying expense reports yet he only ended up losing to the Liberal Democrat by less than 1,500 votes.

The Liberal Democrat, Jane Dodds, benefited from the Greens and Plaid Cymru agreeing to stand down, leaving an open lane for an unadulterated pro-Remain candidate.

It worked, making one wonder if similar arrangements can be made once a general election is called.

Labour was not part of the agreement, and the Labor candidate came in fourth behind the Brexit Party, which is an ill omen for both the Conservatives and Labour. Nigel Farage has said that the Brexit Party will field candidates in the next general election.

After summarizing the results in Brecon and Radnorshire, Castle spends the rest of the story pondering whether a general election will be called pre- or post-crash out.

My guess is that Johnson will call a general election before a crash out.

To attempt to lock in a crash out Boris would have to expend far too much energy in prorogation to prevent the House of Commons from toppling his government. He's been campaigning since he entered Number 10. Maybe holding a general election at the same time as the Brexit deadline arrives is Johnson's secret plan to guarantee a crash out. I would imagine though that before adjourning for the election parliament would instruct the government to seek another extension.

In any event, elections in October. Hopefully.