While not as dire as a Brexit crash-out, politics in Germany is set to scramble the status quo before the end of the year. Reuters reports that German finance minister Olaf Scholz will run for the leadership of the Social Democrats. The Social Democratic Party (SPD) has been led by three interim chiefs since Andrea Nahles' resigned following the party's disastrous performance in European Parliament elections in May. Scholz is a pro-GroKo, which means he supports the maintenance of the Grand Coalition government of the SPD and Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats (CDU). The GroKo has been extremely damaging to the popularity of the SPD.
There are six main parties in Germany divided into three tiers in the polls. The top tier is occupied by the Greens and CDU, running currently in the mid-20s; then comes the far right Alternative for Germany (AfD) and SPD in the low teens. The bottom tier is occupied by The Left Party and the Free Democrats, both in single digits.
If Scholz is defeated by an anti-GroKo candidate in December there will either be a new red-red-green government (SPD-Left Party-Greens) or general elections that will likely see a red-red-green government as the result.
In July Adam Tooze sussed it all out in a lengthy article, "Which is worse?," published in The London Review of Books. I recommend it. Change is coming.
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