Boris (Finally) Shows his Hand on Brexit

The breaking news on Brexit this morning (see Stephen Castle's "Boris Johnson Seeks to Stifle Brexit Opposition With Surprise Parliamentary Delay") is that the British prime minister plans not to prorogue parliament but to reconvene it later than usual:

Parliament, currently on vacation, is scheduled to meet during the first two weeks of September, and then to be suspended for annual political party conferences. Parliament had been scheduled to reconvene on Oct. 9.

But in a letter sent Wednesday to all members of Parliament, Mr. Johnson said he intended to resume on Oct. 14, with a speech by Queen Elizabeth II, laying out the agenda of the Conservative government under Mr. Johnson, who took office last month.

A new session of Parliament begins with a queen’s speech, an elaborate ceremonial occasion that requires a significant chunk of parliamentary time, and the prime minister has great leeway in deciding on the timing. By scheduling it before the Brexit deadline, he would further limit the time available to opponents of a no-deal Brexit.

This has caught Brexit watchers by surprise. Johnson seems to have successfully feinted the other day when it was leaked that he had asked attorney general Geoffrey Cox whether parliament could be prorogued for five weeks starting September 9.

Yves Smith had a helpful write-up yesterday, "Brexit: Sound and Fury," where she once again illuminated the bottom line:

We’re in Groundhog Day territory yet again, with the tired threat of not paying the so-called divorce tab again rearing it ugly head. It is quite astonishing that most of what passes for the elites in the UK seem not to grasp that Brexit is not the end of the road, but merely an irrevocable first step in what will be a long and taxing process of forging new trade agreements with the rest of the world and making significant legal, economic, and lifestyle changes as a result of that. Those of you who are keeping tabs on the finer points of the Brexit negotiations likely took note of Barnier saying that any trade deal with the EU would require the UK to commit to the main points of the Withdrawal Agreement, in particular, the exit bill, the provisions regarding movement of people, and something a lot like the backstop (Clive pointed out it would be very hard to devise an analogue to the backstop arrangements absent a transition period, which comes only with a Withdrawal Agreement).

At least Johnson has shown his cards. And what do they reveal? Really what we've known all along: That the essence of the Tory position has always been delay; delay until a crash out becomes inevitable.

Unless Jo Swinson, new leader of the Liberal Democrats, changes her tune and agrees to Jeremy Corbyn's unity government, it looks like Johnson will be successful.

This morning Corbyn is promising to block Johnson when parliament meets next week.  But if Corbyn can't accomplish this, even if Johnson loses a confidence vote, it doesn't appear that there is enough room left on the calendar to prevent a crash out.