Biden Has Already Lost

There are too many reasons, too many holes in the leaky Biden-Harris campaign vessel, to expect an outcome other than a Trump victory this November. Whether it is persistent inflation, genocide, nuclear brinkmanship, or the loss of popular support with foundational constituencies, the jig is up for the Democrats.

Take any campaign story, like the one written the other day about an event at Girard College in Philadelphia, a rare joint appearance by the president and vice president, and you will usually find plenty of pretty paper-wrapping attempting to obscure bad news for Biden, such as that described below:   

Mr. Biden has plenty of ground to make up with Black Americans. Polls consistently show that his support from Black voters has declined to alarming levels for a Democrat. In a multicandidate race, just 49 percent of Black voters across six of the top battleground states said they would back Mr. Biden, a New York Times/Siena College/Philadelphia Inquirer poll found. Four years ago, nearly nine in 10 Black voters nationwide cast their ballots for Mr. Biden, according to exit polls.

For anyone who follows American party politics, this is all you need to know. Biden bleeding 40 points among Black voters with six months left before election day means he has already lost. There is too much ground to make up, too little time, with no indication that there is much volatility in voter sentiment.

The more interesting question is whether Black and Latino migration out of the Democratic Party will undermine one branch of the American duopoly. After all, the Black voter is the base of the Democratic Party, and the Latino voter was supposed to be the guarantor of future Democratic Party majorities.

We are entering a period of dealignment the likes of which have not been seen since the 1960s/1970s.