According to Nate Cohn of the New York Times Biden received a two-point bounce from Trump's guilty verdict in the Stormy Daniels hush-money trial.
The question is whether two points is significant. A Never Trumper will argue it is. The argument goes something like this: all Biden needs to do is win the swing states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, while holding the non-swing states that he won in 2020, and he will accrue the necessary Electoral College votes to claim the presidency. Support for this argument is that Biden trails Trump in Michigan, Pennsylania and Wisconsin by one to two points, within the margin of error.
Arguing against this conclusion is something Cohn revealed in the post-verdict survey:
In fact, the voters we spoke to who continue to support Mr. Trump appear to be more enthusiastic than ever. Many of his previously disengaged supporters seemed newly energized by the verdict, with 18 percent of his supporters who previously said they were unlikely to vote now “almost certain” to do so, compared with just 3 percent of Mr. Biden’s supporters who moved into that category.
The verdict, at least at first blush, delivered the obvious -- greater engagement and commitment from disinterested Trump voters, to the tune of a 15-point bounce over Biden voters. This is not something that is going to show up on the topline margin in a poll, but it something that will definitely make a difference on election day.
Also, bad news for Biden is that two points is likely is good as it gets in terms of any advantage from Trump's many legal woes. No other case is going to be decided prior to November.
So, to sum up, Biden is going to lose. The silver bullet has been fired and the werewolf remains upright and moving forward. Trump remains ahead in all six swing states.
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