Almost No Bounce for Biden After Trump Guilty Verdict

According to Nate Cohn of the New York Times Biden received a two-point bounce from Trump's guilty verdict in the Stormy Daniels hush-money trial.

The question is whether two points is significant. A Never Trumper will argue it is. The argument goes something like this: all Biden needs to do is win the swing states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, while holding the non-swing states that he won in 2020, and he will accrue the necessary Electoral College votes to claim the presidency. Support for this argument is that Biden trails Trump in Michigan, Pennsylania and Wisconsin by one to two points, within the margin of error.

Arguing against this conclusion is something Cohn revealed in the post-verdict survey:

In fact, the voters we spoke to who continue to support Mr. Trump appear to be more enthusiastic than ever. Many of his previously disengaged supporters seemed newly energized by the verdict, with 18 percent of his supporters who previously said they were unlikely to vote now “almost certain” to do so, compared with just 3 percent of Mr. Biden’s supporters who moved into that category.

The verdict, at least at first blush, delivered the obvious -- greater engagement and commitment from disinterested Trump voters, to the tune of a 15-point bounce over Biden voters. This is not something that is going to show up on the topline margin in a poll, but it something that will definitely make a difference on election day.

Also, bad news for Biden is that two points is likely is good as it gets in terms of any advantage from Trump's many legal woes. No other case is going to be decided prior to November.

So, to sum up, Biden is going to lose. The silver bullet has been fired and the werewolf remains upright and moving forward. Trump remains ahead in all six swing states. 

Biden Has Already Lost

There are too many reasons, too many holes in the leaky Biden-Harris campaign vessel, to expect an outcome other than a Trump victory this November. Whether it is persistent inflation, genocide, nuclear brinkmanship, or the loss of popular support with foundational constituencies, the jig is up for the Democrats.

Take any campaign story, like the one written the other day about an event at Girard College in Philadelphia, a rare joint appearance by the president and vice president, and you will usually find plenty of pretty paper-wrapping attempting to obscure bad news for Biden, such as that described below:   

Mr. Biden has plenty of ground to make up with Black Americans. Polls consistently show that his support from Black voters has declined to alarming levels for a Democrat. In a multicandidate race, just 49 percent of Black voters across six of the top battleground states said they would back Mr. Biden, a New York Times/Siena College/Philadelphia Inquirer poll found. Four years ago, nearly nine in 10 Black voters nationwide cast their ballots for Mr. Biden, according to exit polls.

For anyone who follows American party politics, this is all you need to know. Biden bleeding 40 points among Black voters with six months left before election day means he has already lost. There is too much ground to make up, too little time, with no indication that there is much volatility in voter sentiment.

The more interesting question is whether Black and Latino migration out of the Democratic Party will undermine one branch of the American duopoly. After all, the Black voter is the base of the Democratic Party, and the Latino voter was supposed to be the guarantor of future Democratic Party majorities.

We are entering a period of dealignment the likes of which have not been seen since the 1960s/1970s.