A lengthy story in The New York Times, "U.A.E. Pulls Most Forces From Yemen in Blow to Saudi War Effort," by Declan Walsh and David Kirkpatrick, confirms what was reported last week in the Wall Street Journal: United Arab Emirates is abandoning the war in Yemen.
This is dire news for Saudi Arabia since it was UAE-led forces that have achieved most if not all of the significant battlefield victories against the Houthis in Yemen. Word is that now, with the UAE departing, the militias that control Aden will set to fighting among themselves; also, Houthi forces will be able to lift the siege of the critical port city of Hodeidah.
Walsh and Kirkpatrick's dispatch is filled with juicy quotes from Western aficionados:
The drawdown “is going to expose the Saudis to the reality that this war is a failure,” said Michael Stephens of the Royal United Services Institute, a research group in London. “It tells us the two main protagonists on the coalition side, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, don’t have the same idea of what success looks like.”
[snip]
“The only thing stopping the Houthis from taking over Yemen was the U.A.E. armed forces,” said Michael Knights, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute. “Now the glue that was holding Yemen together is being withdrawn.”
[snip]
The Saudis, though, may still believe in a military victory. “There are voices in Riyadh who think the Houthis can be caused enough pain to do what Saudi Arabia wants,” said Peter Salisbury of the International Crisis Group. “But that feels like wishful thinking, which is not a good substitute for strategy.”One face-saving solution for Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman would be for Trump to start a shooting war with Iran. Then MbS could announce his own drawdown in Yemen to bolster the U.S. effort.
The pressures are going to be enormous to begin a war on Iran this summer.
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