Trump Launches 2020 Presidential Campaign in Earnest

Trump's Twitter dust-up with "the Squad" -- “IF YOU ARE NOT HAPPY HERE, YOU CAN LEAVE!” -- is all about the 2020 general election. As NYT chief Washington correspondent Carl Hulse writes in his opening paragraph (see "A Blaring Message in Republicans’ Muted Criticism: It’s Trump’s Party"):

The lack of widespread Republican condemnation of President Trump for his comments about four Democratic congresswomen of color illustrated both the tightening stranglehold Mr. Trump has on his party and the belief of many Republicans that an attack on progressivism should in fact be a central element of the 2020 campaign.

In his "Water Cooler" post Lambert Strether finds that "top Democrats" are concerned:

“Exclusive poll: AOC defining Dems in swing states” [Axios]. “Top Democrats are circulating a poll showing that one of the House’s most progressive members — Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez — has become a definitional face for the party with a crucial group of swing voters. Why it matters: These Democrats are sounding the alarm that swing voters know and dislike socialism, warning it could cost them the House and the presidency. The poll is making the rounds of some of the most influential Democrats in America.” • Goodness, I wonder who those top Democrats are. Note that even Celinda Lake thinks this is a terrible poll (see thread here).

According to Julie Hirschfeld Davis, Trump thinks he's got a winner here with this melange of pink-baiting and bigotry:

Mr. Trump clearly sees a political advantage in his targeting of the congresswomen, betting that by focusing attention on them, he will be better able to paint all Democrats with a broad brush of socialism and radical policies.

“The Dems were trying to distance themselves from the four ‘progressives,’ but now they are forced to embrace them,” Mr. Trump gloated on Twitter on Monday evening. “That means they are endorsing Socialism, hate of Israel and the USA! Not good for the Democrats!”

Cornell Belcher, a Democratic pollster and strategist, said Mr. Trump’s latest remarks reflected a broader strategy to use the same kind of racial animus that helped propel his 2016 presidential bid to bolster his base for his 2020 re-election push.

“He’s crazy like a fox, and it only makes perfectly good sense for him to go back to what got him here in the first place, which is driving this racial angst in the electorate,” Mr. Belcher said.

Let's not forget that Trump pulled out all the racist stops before. In the run-up to the 2018 midterm elections Trump "crisscrossed" the country campaigning for Republican candidates by sounding the alarm that a migrant caravan was on its way to invade the United States and that it was being funded by Democrats. It didn't stop the Blue Wave.

Trump might find a more receptive audience by screaming "Socialism!" repeatedly from now until November 2020. This will likely enable him to keep the suburban Republicans who Hillary was banking on in 2016.

But the problem for Trump remains that the only way he can replicate 2016 is if the Democrats nominate another Hillary. Of the top-tier candidates that fit the bill, it's Biden, Buttigieg and possibly Harris (given her penchant to flip flop). Still, I am not convinced that these three couldn't return enough of the "Obama coalition" to the polls to beat a lusterless Trump.

Trump's best bet is if the Democratic Party eats itself. And there's a decent chance that will happen.