War Drums in Lebanon & Ukraine + INF Treaty + Zombie May + "Smoking Saw"

There are warnings of an Israeli attack on Lebanon, as well as a Ukrainian attack on Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) in Donbass.

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Colonel Cassad assesses the U.S. ultimatum to Russia on the INF treaty. Not good.

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The first test of strength for May's Brexit plan got off to a shaky start in parliament yesterday. Yves Smith jousts against the conventional and opines that May actually fared pretty well:

May may survive next week. Even though her bill will be shellacked, the margin of loss on the contempt vote is a reminder that the Tories will be loath to oppose her if there isn’t a viable leader in the wings. And the reason May is still standing is that there hasn’t been one since she became PM. The Tories do not want Corbyn in, and the DUP does not want to sacrifice its temporary power player role. So the DUP and Tories will vote against May only if they are pretty certain they can quickly install a new PM and avoid a general election.

The scenario that appears to be coming together is that May loses next week but not by an enormous margin. She survives to trudge off to Brussels one more time to try renegotiate the Irish backstop with the EU. The Orangemen of the DUP don't want a perpetual border-free customs union that will bind Northern Ireland to the south. Nothing will come of May's efforts other than allowing her government to live into the New Year.

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After what looked like a triumph for crown prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) at the G-20 in Argentina (a high five from Putin!) the Khashoggi affair is back top of the fold. Reuters reports:

ANKARA (Reuters) - Istanbul’s chief prosecutor has filed warrants for the arrest of a top aide to Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler and the deputy head of its foreign intelligence on suspicion of planning the killing of Jamal Khashoggi, two Turkish officials said on Wednesday.

The prosecutor’s office has concluded there is “strong suspicion” that Saud al-Qahtani and General Ahmed al-Asiri, both removed from their positions in October, were among the planners of Khashoggi’s Oct. 2 killing at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, the officials said.

The move comes a day after senior U.S. senators said they were more certain than ever that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman was responsible for the killing, citing a CIA briefing. The United Nations human rights chief on Wednesday called for an international investigation.

Lindsey Graham had a good line yesterday rebutting Pompeo's claim that there was "no smoking gun" linking MbS to Khashoggi's murder. Graham quipped, “There is not a smoking gun, there’s a smoking saw. You have to be willfully blind not to see it."