A Break from Brexit for the Holidays

This morning there is a convergence of the fringe and the mainstream. Naked Capitalism agrees with The New York Times regarding the meaning of prime minister Theresa May having survived a confidence vote yesterday 200 to 117.

First, Stephen Castle writing in "Theresa May Survives Leadership Challenge, but Brexit Plan Is Still in Peril" says that

Her strategy appears to be to delay the critical vote — now probably in the middle of January — and to hope that the growing risk of a disorderly departure brings some lawmakers back into line. But many doubt that will work.

“Clearly, her last throw of the dice is count down the clock and try to bounce people into voting for it,” Mr. Springford said. “But I am not convinced she will win that vote. I don’t think that she can get meaningful concessions from the European Union that would be enough to get her over the line.

“The best hope is that everybody calms down over Christmas, that they start to really worry about no deal, and that some more moderate people signal that they will support her. But everyone is now so high up their pole that I am not sure they can climb down.”

Next, Yves Smith in "Brexit: Endgame":

Just like Greece in 2015, May is playing a game of chicken. She will attempt to force a choice between her deal and no deal, on the belief that something will give so that she gets her deal, meaning either the Europeans blink on the backstop, or that MPs that would vote against her Withdrawal Agreement now lose their nerve as March 29 or the extended drop dead date approaches.

But we know the EU will not relent on the backstop, although the UK political and pundit classes will probably continue to refuse to accept that through much of January. They do not want to believe that even businesses on the Continent are not willing to go beyond the deal struck with May. They are not willing to give the UK a commercial advantage by being able to have lower labor and environmental regulations and still have special access to the EU. They’ve stretched the idea of what’s required to be in the Single Market and will go no further. They are prepared to take a “no deal” hit if they must.

This "run out the clock" reading of the situation has been apparent from the very outset of May's leadership. There has been plenty to obscure it in the last two years but no longer.

May has promised to bring her deal to a vote of parliament by January 21. But who can believe anything the prime minister says?

At least for the time being, say, the holiday season upon us, we can shelve Brexit for a while.