Endgame Brexit + Macron Flinches + AMLO's First Move

The Brexit vote in parliament is scheduled for next Tuesday, December 11. So gloomy are May's prospects of victory, the debate is over the margin of defeat for her withdrawal agreement. Touts think a loss in the 50-vote range will allow May to live to fight another day; a loss by 100 votes will lead to her ouster.

That's where Yves Smith has some worthwhile thoughts on the topic. Clearly the path forward after May's Brexit agreement is rejected next week will be for the prime minister to resign and new elections held. But, as Smith points out, the fractious Tory-led coalition government is united in not wanting elections:

Labour has said it would introduce a motion of no confidence if May’s Brexit were voted down and there is every reason to take them at their word. Some Conservatives have already sent in letters calling for a Motion of No Confidence, and the DUP is likely to vote against May. DUP leader Arlene Foster has recently said the UK could get a better deal from the EU if it pushed for it, which contradicts May’s claims. It doesn’t matter whether Foster believe this or not; it legitimates the DUP voting to toss May over the side.

However, the DUP does not want a General Election. It would almost certainly lose its powerful position as the key member in a coalition. Neither do the Tories. So if the Tories can rally around a new PM (Michael Gove?), the DUP would very likely join them. Recall that under the Fixed Term Parliaments Act, the Government can forestall a general election if it can act quickly enough. From Parliament’s website:

"If such a motion is agreed to, and a new government with the support of a majority of MPs cannot be formed within a period of 14 calendar days, Parliament is dissolved and an early General Election is triggered."

The fact that May might be turfed out right before Parliament goes out of session starting Friday December 21 means that minds in the Tory party are very likely focused on this question right now. And since a General Election will not have been called under any scenario by the time of the EU Council meeting on December 13-14, one wonder what they will have to say.

Gove is positioning himself  to replace May. But what I don't understand is why anyone would want to lead a government responsible for a crash-out of the European Union. I don't see it. It might be a UKIP or DUP wish, but it's not the basis of a national government. A Gove government might survive for a moment on subterfuge and misdirection. But there is very little time between now and March 29, and the Tories are hemmed in by the EU on one side and Labour and SNP on the other.

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Macron flinched today and announced a six-month moratorium on his gas tax. The Yellow Vests promptly rejected the move as insufficient. Protests will proceed. My guess is that now having presented the carrot Macron can graduate to the stick. If the rebellion remains at the level of last Saturday, Macron will announce a state of emergency.

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AMLO is already cooking in Mexico. According to Maria Verza and Mark Stevenson, "Mexico’s ‘common man’ president pledges end to secrecy," reporting for AP:

On Monday, Lopez Obrador tackled a case that cast a long shadow over the previous government, signing a presidential decree creating a truth commission to investigate the 2014 disappearance of 43 students in an apparent massacre. He then posed with parents of the missing young people, who displayed photos of their loved ones.

Prosecutors have said the students from a teachers college in southern Guerrero state were killed by a drug gang and their bodies incinerated in a massive fire. But conclusive evidence has never been found or presented, leading the students’ parents on a frustrating, painful four-year quest for the truth,