The Kavanaugh Confirmation: a Super Bowl in September

It's hard to resist rubbernecking this spectacle. There are so few moments in our fractured digitally connected world that promote a singular cultural focus, I feel a bad sport if I don't participate, if I don't read the list of questions that The New York Times Editorial Board has prepared for Judge Brett Kavanaugh, an example of which is:

On Wednesday, Julie Swetnick, a woman who grew up in the Washington suburbs and claims to have traveled the same 1980s social circuit as you, gave a sworn statement alleging that you drank excessively at many parties she attended; that you were verbally abusive and physically aggressive toward young women, fondling and grabbing them; and that you were part of a group of young men who would spike the punch at parties with alcohol or illicit drugs with an eye toward incapacitating the female attendees, including Ms. Swetnick herself, and then raping them. Could she be right about any of this?

It's the Super Bowl in September, and the grand barbecue is beginning to have an effect. As Nicholas Fandos and Michael Shear report in "Before Kavanaugh Hearing, New Accusations and Doubts Emerge" this morning:

Democrats seized on the latest accusations to call on Judge Kavanaugh to withdraw, and they pummeled Republicans with requests for outside investigations of the accusations. Republicans, fuming over what they view as increasingly craven partisan attacks, vowed to push ahead with a committee vote scheduled for Friday.

But even before Thursday’s hearings, it was clear that Judge Kavanaugh’s confirmation was in jeopardy. Senator Susan Collins, Republican of Maine and a key swing vote, told colleagues in a private meeting that she was troubled by the latest accusations. Holding a printout of Ms. Swetnick’s declaration, she asked why the Judiciary Committee was not issuing a subpoena for Mr. Judge, who has appeared in two separate accusations, according to an official familiar with the meeting.

Ms. Collins joined two other Republican senators, Jeff Flake of Arizona and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, in expressing reservations about the Kavanaugh nomination, more than enough to sink it.

I'm still skeptical that Democrats can derail Kavanaugh's confirmation. McConnell has promised it, and Flake is a phony; he also expressed reservations about repealing Obamacare before voting to do so. Collins and Murkowski might vote against Kavanaugh. They are both outliers in their party who bucked Trump on the Obamacare repeal. I would guess that if they support Kavanaugh they'll guarantee themselves an Emily's List challenger in the future. But I don't know what their plans are. Both are up for reelection in 2020.

Either way Democrats win here. If Kavanaugh is rammed home, a large Blue Wave crashes on the GOP in November. If Kavanaugh is blocked, Trump will be flummoxed. A new supreme court candidate will have to wait until after the Blue Wave reaches the shore. By that time things will be different. A lame duck confirmation of a new nominee is possible but difficult.

One interesting aspect of this barbecue is how the Trotskyists at WSWS are largely in agreement with Trump regarding Kavanaugh's confirmation. It's a witch hunt.