Expect a Donbass Deal Next Week

Usually I scan the news before going to bed. I'll read quickly a full article if I think is important, like I did last night with "Ukrainian and Russian Leaders Will Meet as Rebels Continue to Falter," by Andrew Higgins and Andrew Kramer:

KIEV, Ukraine — Ukrainian forces pushed deeper into territory controlled by pro-Russian rebels on Tuesday, fighting street battles in the besieged city of Luhansk and pressuring the outer defenses of Donetsk in a further blow to the separatists’ crumbling virtual state. 

While continuing its offensive, the Ukrainian government said it saw a chance for a peaceful settlement after an announcement that President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia would meet next Tuesday with his Ukrainian counterpart, Petro O. Poroshenko, and European Union leaders in Minsk, the capital of Belarus.

Things are not going particularly well for Novorossiya.  While the dispatches from Colonel Cassad list plenty of junta losses, they also frequently mention a "crisis" atmosphere for a rebel militia attempting to cover the entire theater of the Ukrainian military offensive. Then there is the issue of the LPR/DPR's loss of leadership. Andrew Kramer reports in "Plenty of Room at the Top of Ukraine’s Fading Rebellion" that it has had an immediate adverse impact on the rebellion:

. . . President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia appears to be maneuvering for a face-saving settlement, analysts say, a way to escape a losing situation without puncturing his strongman image or antagonizing the ultranationalists at home who were expecting him to follow up his annexation of Crimea with an invasion of Ukraine. 

Step 1 has been a change in leadership. In recent weeks, in what separatist officials hopefully call the “Ukrainianization” of the leadership, almost all the original Russian leaders of the rebellion have resigned and gone home, replaced by Ukrainians of dubious qualifications. 

Aleksandr Borodai, a Russian citizen, stepped down as prime minister of the Donetsk People’s Republic, to make way for a Ukrainian, Aleksandr Zakharchenko, who had led a police advocacy group before the war. In the Luhansk region, Valery Bolotov, a Russian citizen, announced last week he had “temporarily resigned” as prime minister and left for Russia for medical treatment. He was replaced by Igor Plotnitskiy, a former public health inspector in Ukraine. 

Igor Girkin, who uses the nickname Igor Strelkov, or Igor the Shooter, a former colonel in the Federal Security Service who led the Russian military takeover of Crimea before arriving in eastern Ukraine, resigned as defense minister of the Donetsk People’s Republic. Vladimir Kononov, a local resident and former judo instructor, took his place. 

The shuffle also removed those in charge when Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 was shot down on July 17, including Igor Bezler, who used the nickname Bes, or the Demon. Mr. Bezler, a native of Crimea, appeared in a video in April identifying himself as a lieutenant colonel in the Russian Army. His location is unknown. 

The only remaining senior Russian here is Vladimir Antyufeyev, a reputed spy who lived under an assumed name for a decade and is now the first deputy prime minister. 

For the pro-Russian enterprise, the change of leadership was a gamble. While opening the prospect of peace talks, as the authorities in Kiev have refused to negotiate with Russian citizens, it has also left the rebel military ranks adrift, with control in the hands of local Ukrainians with modest résumés.

Kramer goes on to play up the loss of leadership as feeding the drunken anarchy that rules the streets of Donetsk without exploring the possibility that the excessive alcohol consumption might be a reaction to the junta's shelling of the city, a war crime.

In any event, something is in the works. Merkel will be in Kiev on Saturday; Putin in Minsk with Poroshenko on Tuesday. A deal has to get done for the simple reason that when the Ukie military enters Luhansk and Donetsk, the "Aleppo" phase of urban combat will commence and the humanitarian crisis will expand exponentially. While an argument could be made that the United States has been angling for such an outcome all along, the hope for Putin and Merkel is that the junta can see clearly enough to realize that by turning Donetsk and Luhansk into Aleppo it is destroying the future viability of the Ukraine. Also, I am sure that Merkel and Putin come with purses filled. Putin has Gazprom; Merkel has the European Central Bank.

So I think a deal will be done. I hope a deal will be done. But last night I dreamed a disturbing dream. I boarded a train. The train was waiting on the platform, and I walked in the open doors. Others waited on the platform. For some reason when I entered the train I decided to leave my shoulder bag/brief case on the platform. I think my thought was that I wanted to check out to make sure the train was headed in the right direction. There were a few riders who were already sitting down inside.

Shortly after I entered the train, the conductor announced the train was leaving and then the doors shut. I got up to leave, but it was too late. I looked at my bag sitting on the platform where a few commuters milled about waiting for the next train.

Immediately I became panicked. My wallet, with all my credit cards and identification and $100 cash, was in the bag. The amount of time to replace all that stuff was too staggering to comprehend. I had to get off the train. But how to do that? The next stop -- when was the next stop?

The rest of the dream was like a Steve McQueen action movie. I think I actually pried the doors of the train car open and jumped out, leaving me in an industrial rail yard with new stubbly spring grass on the surrounding hills. I took off running, calculating the entire time the probability that my bag would still be there when I finally arrived back at the platform.

The point? Don't get on the train. Get off the train. And that is what I think Putin does.