The Coming Collapse of U.S. Hegemony

Events seem to be moving in the direction of a big battle for control of Slovyansk city center. The junta military has established checkpoints surrounding the city, according to putschist interior minister Arsen Avakov. Since Avakov does a great job impersonating Joseph Goebbels, it is difficult to assess how strong these roadblocks are and how likely it is that junta troops will storm Slovyansk. But if they do, there is no doubt that the conflict in Ukraine will graduate to another level of violence.

Based on a reading of the blogs -- Moon of Alabama, The Vineyard of the Saker -- over the weekend, the sense out there is that Russia is being provoked by the United States to intervene militarily in Ukraine in order to block European integration east with the Russia and China. A Russian invasion would force Europe to side with its North Atlantic partner in building up NATO military forces on Russia's border as well as severing trade ties with the Russian Federation. At this point, barring mass slaughter of civilians by the putsch government, it doesn't look like Russia is going to take the bait.

Energy supply is the obvious vulnerability in any plan to sever Europe from Russia. Andrew Higgins explores the current U.S.-generated fantasy of how Ukraine can achieve independence from Gazprom in "Kiev Struggles to Break Russia’s Grip on Gas Flow." The idea is that Slovakia has the pipeline capacity to reverse flow natural gas to Ukraine. But for some reason -- Higgins sees the baleful, corrupting influence of Vlad Putin at work -- the Slovak government has been slow to embrace the scheme. It is a long story. One has to read to the end to get to the obvious. Reverse flows depend on the agreement of all parties, meaning that Gazprom would have to sign off in it. Why would they do that?

Alexander Medvedev, the head of Gazprom’s export arm, said he had no problem in principle with reverse-flow supplies to Ukraine but said such arrangements “require the agreement of all parties involved,” including Gazprom. 

“Normally, you can’t arrange a physical reverse flow without a new pipeline,” he added, indicating Gazprom’s opposition to the use of existing Slovak pipelines.

The main event over the weekend was the Friday massacre in Odessa. Federalist, pro-Russian protesters were attacked by Ukrainian nationalist soccer hooligans, chased into a building and the building was set on fire. Forty people died. Putsch prime minister Yatsenyuk in a gross perversion of common decency immediately blamed Russian provocation and police ineptitude. The Gray Lady dutifully echoed his words, even though video evidence and crime-scene reporting established that the slaughter was caused by Ukrainian nationalist mobs. Robert Parry, whose Consortium News web site does an excellent job keeping the February Ukrainian coup in proper perspective, asks, "Will Ukraine Be NYT's Waterloo?"

Andrew Kramer brings the Gray Lady back closer to what really happened in Odessa over the weekend with his "Ukraine’s Reins Weaken as Chaos Spreads":

Yanus Milteynus, a 42-year-old construction worker and pro-Russian activist, said he watched from the roof as the pro-Ukrainian crowd threw firebombs into the building’s lower windows, while those inside feared being beaten to death by the crowd if they tried to flee. 

“Some people jumped or tried to run away, but they chased them and beat them,” he said. Videos of the inferno, however, also show pro-Ukrainian activists trying to move scaffolding from a stage to the building, to rescue those inside. 

Only when the police managed to form a cordon to escort out those rescued by firefighters was he able to leave. If the roof caught fire before then, he said, “I would have stayed and sizzled like a sausage in a frying pan.” 

The conflict is hardening hearts on both sides. As the building burned, Ukrainian activists sang the Ukrainian national anthem, witnesses on both sides said. They also hurled a new taunt: “Colorado” for the Colorado potato beetle, striped red and black like the pro-Russian ribbons. Those outside chanted “burn Colorado, burn,” witnesses said. Swastikalike symbols were spray painted on the building, along with graffiti reading “Galician SS,” though it was unclear when it had appeared, or who had painted it. 

“The biggest thing they ever did to make me hate this country was sing the anthem,” Mr. Milteynus said. “I was going to die, and they sang the anthem. I hate them deeply.”

The United States will pay a large price for fomenting this coup in Ukraine. This is no Kosovo. In what increasingly looks like a desperate, reckless attempt to maintain its global hegemony, the USG is paving the way for its collapse. Democrats cannot win as a pro-war party. This means that Republicans will reap the reward. GOP national leadership will further fracture and discredit the country. Get ready. This is what is in store.