The DNC in Free Fall

You can tell from the reporting in The New York Times that an organized "Block Bernie" effort does indeed exist. Why list total state delegate equivalents (S.D.E.s) and percentage of S.D.E.s as the sole metric of victory? Why? Because that is the only measure by which Pete Buttigieg can be declared the victor. Sanders leads in the popular vote by a significant margin, and the two are tied in the number of delegates each will send to the national convention

As Bernie explained in yesterday's press conference, S.D.E.s are elected participants to a state convention that will vote on rules and officers to govern the Iowa Democratic Party (IDP). They have nothing to do with the Democratic National Convention.

So to frame the election in Iowa as a quest for S.D.E.s, as the "newspaper of record" has done day after day, is bogus.

Besides the Sanders press conference, the big campaign news yesterday was that corrupt DNC chairman Tom Perez announced on Twitter that enough was enough -- the IDP should recanvass the state. Perez walked this back later in the day, saying that only problem precincts should be recanvassed, presumably the satellite caucus sites won overwhelming by Bernie.

There is a debate tonight on ABC. There is little doubt that Buttigieg has received a bounce in New Hampshire. If former Mayor Pete can parlay his fictitious first-place finish in a melted down Iowa to a close second or, improbably, a win in New Hampshire, then the corporate media buzz saw will cut the Democratic Primary field down to a Sanders-Buttigieg contest, pending the arrival of Bloomberg on Super Tuesday.

One potential scenario is that Buttigieg and Bloomberg will join forces. Even assuming that Buttigieg can vacuum up most of the supporters of Biden and Warren -- a big assumption -- he has very little campaign structure outside the first few primary contests. Former Mayor Pete will need to somehow tag-team with Daddy Warbucks Bloomberg if he hopes to remain in the race. FiveThirtyEight has Buttigieg's chances of victory at no more than 1 in 20.

Meanwhile the party is fracturing as expected. As NYT reports,

It’s not just Sanders supporters who are uneasy with Mr. Perez. 

James Carville, who has said the chairman should resign, pointed to another controversy this week that has been overshadowed by the Iowa chaos: the ouster of the top aides who had been planning the party’s nominating convention in Milwaukee. He cited it as another sign of the party’s disarray.

“We can’t count votes, put on a convention or deliver a winning message,” said Mr. Carville, the longtime Clinton strategist.

If James Carville is calling for DNC heads on pikes, you know we're approaching free fall.