Erdogan Drops a Nuke

Turkey is not a nuclear state, though it does participate in a nuclear-weapon sharing program with the United States as a NATO member. Turkey does have a weapon in its arsenal that is capable of delivering a blow as devastating as a nuke; it is one that Turkish president Erdogan, in the wake of Syrian/Russian airstrikes yesterday that killed 33 Turkish soldiers in Syria's contested Idlib Province, has now deployed:

“We have decided, effectively immediately, not to stop Syrian refugees from reaching Europe by land or sea,” a senior Turkish official told Reuters on condition of anonymity.

“All refugees, including Syrians, are now welcome to cross into the European Union,” the official said, adding that police and border guards had been stood down.

Within hours, a column of dozens of migrants was heading on foot towards the European frontier in the early morning light. A man carried a small child in his arms. Others rode in taxis.

Four years ago, Erdogan, after much haggling with German chancellor Angela Merkel, agreed to block the flow of refugees from the Syrian war zone and warehouse them in Turkey. The flows of refugees destabilized Europe, led to Brexit and the rise of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) ultra-nationalist party. Erdogan, whenever he feels like he is not getting what he wants from European leaders, threatens to turn on the refugee spigot; that he has finally done so means that he must be desperate for assistance. What he wants is NATO support for Turkey's offensive operation in Idlib Province, the rump caliphate Erdogan controls along with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), previously known as the Nusra Front, the Syrian Al Qaeda affiliate.

The problem for Erdogan is that there is no deal-maker among the Europeans who can deliver what he wants. Merkel is a lamb duck with a greatly diminished base of support. Rank'n'file Christian Democrats are moving to embrace AfD. Macron is despised by the French. Boris Johnson has problems of his own. Across the Atlantic, Trump is in the middle of an election year that is taking place during the global coronavirus pandemic. To commit U.S. forces to a war with Russia would be political suicide.

It's not clear that NATO military aid to Turkey would do anything more than expand the refugee crisis during a plague year. The deal-maker Erdogan needs more than anyone is Vladimir Putin.

Erdogan's ask seems to be a return to the original Sochi boundaries minus the agreement's commitment to demilitarization; in other words, a complete absurdity. If Russia and Syria are going to move in a direction that Erdogan wants, a completely new agreement will have to be drawn, which will take time.

But the floodgates have opened. Refugees are crossing borders while the coronavirus continues to spread. We'll know that Erdogan is on his way to getting what he wants if a ceasefire is called in the next 48-72 hours. If not, 2020 is looking downright biblical -- locusts, plague, war.