Afghanistan: Civil War within a Foreign Occupation

It seems odd to me that there is little reporting yesterday or today about Ashraf Ghani being declared winner of last year's presidential election; his main opponent, Abdullah Abdullah, has also announced himself a winner and started to staff a parallel government.

According to The New York Times, (see "Ghani Named Afghan Election Winner. His Opponent Claims Victory, Too." by Mujib Mashal, Najim Rahim and Fatima Faizi),

In a news conference announcing the election result after an audit of about 15 percent of the total vote, the chief of Afghanistan’s election commission, Hawa Alam Nuristani, said that Mr. Ghani had won with the narrowest of margins — 50.64 percent of the vote, just surpassing the 50 percent minimum required for an outright victory with no runoff. Mr. Abdullah received 39.5 percent.

The win puts Mr. Ghani in position for another five-year term as president.

“This is not just an election victory,” Mr. Ghani said, flanked by his running mates, after the result was announced. “This is the victory of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan. This is the victory of the people’s wishes.”

Hours later, however, Mr. Abdullah appeared in a televised address surrounded by his own supporters.

“I asked those who believe in democracy, in a healthy future for this country, in citizens’ rights to stand up to fraud and to not accept this fraudulent result,” Mr. Abdullah said. “We are the winners based on clean votes, and we declare our victory. We will form the inclusive government.”

Moon of Alabama thinks (see "Afghan Election Drama Threatens Trump's Deal With The Taliban")
that Abdullah Abdullah is not bullshitting. Though U.S. viceroy Zalmay Khalilzad is attempting to reprise John Kerry's 2014 Mr. Fix-it performance when the U.S. cobbled together an extra-constitutional Ghani-Abdullah shotgun wedding, MoA thinks that Afghanistan may be headed toward partition:

Alarmed over the situation the U.S. envoy Zalmay Khalilzad rushed to Kabul together with the head of Pakistan's military spy service ISI. They and the U.S. ambassador to Afghanistan went immediately to Abdullah's headquarter.

Threats will be made and many millions of dollars will be offered. But Abdullah will not give in. His voters and followers want to see him fighting. He will most likely demand a run-off election to stall any further process. Ghani will of course oppose that.

[snip]

Abdullah may well think of splitting the north, west and the central Hazara region of Afghanistan from the mainly Pashtun south and east. It would be difficult fight but Afghan's norther neighbors as well as Russia and China may well support him. They see the U.S. incompetence in Afghanistan and the negotiations with the Taliban as a danger to their countries.

Thanks to COVID-19, Trump's beloved DJIA appears to be headed south. Now, Trump's promise to play peacemaker in Afghanistan could be in trouble. Abdullah is critical of the U.S.-Taliban talks.