Bolton

Today in Riyadh a GCC planning session is being held to chart the next steps in the war against Iran. Preparatory to the war powwow, U.S. national security adviser, John Bolton, who is in the region, made a statement blaming Iran for sabotage earlier in the month of oil tankers off the coast of the United Arab Emirates. Bolton's words -- “naval mines almost certainly from Iran” -- clearly carefully chosen, prove nothing; worse, they point in the direction of a false flag operation.

Helpful to understanding Bolton's role in Trump's quixotic quest for reelection is "Trump Undercuts Bolton on North Korea and Iran" by Peter Baker and Maggie Haberman:

Mr. Trump picked Mr. Bolton in part as a reaction against the narrative that the current and retired generals in his administration were really running things, and in part to find a polar opposite of Mr. Bolton’s predecessor, Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster. It also helped that Mr. Bolton had the support of Sheldon G. Adelson, the casino mogul and Republican financier who has been a key backer of the president.

Unlike General McMaster, Mr. Bolton figured out how to brief Mr. Trump in a more effective way, according to administration officials, but the two have never bonded on a personal level, which is so important in this White House. Mr. Trump is not fond of Mr. Bolton, according to a half-dozen advisers and associates, and he makes no secret of it in private.

Bolton allows Trump to present himself as a dove. Trump is enough of a student of American politics to know that a war-pig will have a difficult time winning a presidential election, particularly since Trump was able to beat Hillary by promising not to wage fruitless Middle Eastern wars of choice.

It's going to be a complicated dance. Bolton will have to be kept on the job to guarantee Adelson's financial support in 2020; but the longer Bolton sticks around, the greater the possibility of war with Iran.

Trump's coup de main would be to sack Bolton on the eve of the presidential election. Adelson's money bags would have already been transferred to the reelection effort, and Trump could parade himself as a champion of peace.

That's going to be tough to pull off. Don't rule out a Democrat assist. If Biden wins his party's nomination, Trump can run as a dove because Biden voted for the Iraq war.