As Nicholas Casey explains in "Venezuelan Opposition Leader Steps Up Pressure, but Maduro Holds On":
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, speaking on CNN’s “The Situation Room with Wolf Blitzer,” said Mr. Maduro and senior leaders in his government had been prepared to fly to Cuba on Tuesday morning, with “an airplane on the tarmac,” but that Russia, a powerful ally of Mr. Maduro’s, had “indicated he should stay.” Mr. Pompeo offered no evidence.
John R. Bolton, the White House national security adviser, said top officials in Mr. Maduro’s government had committed to transitioning power to Mr. Guaidó. He identified them as Vladimir Padrino López, the defense minister, Maikel Moreno, the head of the Supreme Court, and Rafael Hernández Dala, the commander of Mr. Maduro’s presidential guard.
“All agreed Maduro had to go,” Mr. Bolton said. But Mr. Padrino and Mr. Moreno both came out publicly in defense of Mr. Maduro on Tuesday.But it is crediting Trump, Bolton and Pompeo too much to think they have any developed long-term plan for taking control of Venezuela. The fact remains that Juan Guaidó and Leopoldo López and their "extreme right-wing political party Voluntad Popular" have a small base of support, and it is among the country's wealthy elite. The members of the military who participated in yesterday's shenanigans were duped into doing so:
Dozens of other Venezuelan soldiers told the country’s news media that they had been tricked into participating in the provocation staged outside the La Carlota air base, awakened at three in the morning and told to grab their rifles and turn out for an important event where they would receive medals.The only plan that works for the United States is to stage a provocation and then bomb a country from above. But as we know from Syria (how many bombing raids has Israel made in the last six years?) that isn't much a plan either.
Trump is following the Neocon logic of "If at first you don't succeed, make the problem bigger" by blaming Cuba for Venezuela's problems.
It's hard to imagine that Maduro will continue to allow Guaidó to scurry around staging provocations. On the other hand, Guaidó is such a clown, giving him his freedom to serially embarrass himself is perhaps Venezuela's greatest defense.
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