Craig Murray's Brexit Scoop: May Planning a Second Referendum

Craig Murray has a Brexit scoop this morning, "Machiavellianism and Brexit." Apparently May is prepared to acquiesce to a second Brexit referendum but one based on ranked-choice voting. Murray explains that

A Cabinet Office source tells me today No. 10 is considering agreeing a second referendum with three choices: No Deal Brexit, May’s Deal or No Brexit. It would be by alternative vote, ie you rate your preferences 1, 2. The thinking is that the first round might go No Deal 23, May’s Deal 37, No Brexit 40. The second round would then go May’s Deal 60, No Brexit 40.

They claim there is opinion poll evidence to support this. But I see a flaw. It is predicated on the current situation, where a lot of Remainers are prepared to support Brexit, to respect the referendum result. But surely a second referendum would release that psychological constraint and the overwhelming majority of Remainers would seize the opportunity to try and ditch Brexit?

The advantage of the ploy from May’s viewpoint is that it presents her “deal” as the only alternative to No Deal or No Brexit, and in an AV vote the compromise position is always boosted. What is more it keeps the numerous other options for deals outwith her red lines – eg EFTA, Single Market, Customs Union, EEA – all off the ballot paper. This limited choice referendum thus appeals to May as “out-maneuvering” the opposition parties. The idea is to sucker them in to talk on a second referendum, then produce this slanted one.

An earlier Brexit development was noted by Yves Smith in her post this morning, Brexit: Chasing Their Tails. May will present her Plan B, which will be nothing more than a cosmetic tweak of her Plan A that was torched by parliament on Tuesday, but it won't be debated until Tuesday, January 29.

To keep her coalition government intact, of which May has been successful, the prime minister cannot rule out a no deal crash-out, which is what the opposition parties want her to do, because it is a no deal crash-out that keeps the hard-line Brexiteers and the DUP loyal to May.

I would think that the DUP could suss out the implications of a proposed second referendum along the lines of ranked-choice voting and decide at that point to leave May's coalition. Whether that would be enough to halt a second referendum I don't know.

Smith concludes her post citing an interesting poll. A second referendum, contrary to what the mainstream media says, does not receive majority support:

New poll indicates UK voters do not want revocation or extension of Article 50. The survey, of over 2000 people by ComRes on behalf of the Daily Express, is a decent sample size and appears not to be an online poll. And it was taken before Tuesday’s vote, which is unlikely to have improved results:

Three-quarters of voters say the crisis-hit EU departure process has shown that the current generation of MPs are “not up to the job”, according to the data from polling firm ComRes. A root-and-branch overhaul of the country’s entire political system is wanted by a massive 72% of people quizzed in the survey. But despite the chaos embroiling Brexit, a majority of voters (53%) still want the result of the 2016 EU Leave vote to be honoured by ensuring the UK’s withdrawal from the bloc….

Less than a third of voters (31%) wanted Brexit cancelled or a second referendum on the UK’s relationship with the EU to be held.