NFL Divisional Playoff Round

Last week Benjamin Hoffman of The New York Times did well with his picks in the wild card round. He went with all the favorites except for the Texans at home, and he came away 3-1.

Hoffman's only misfire was in the Eagles-Bears game. At 1-3, that was my only correct prediction.

My rationale for the wild card round was to go with the teams I wanted to win. It was a poor rationale.

Houston was completely manhandled by Indianapolis. The Texans seemed worn down from the regular season. Quarterback Deshaun Watson played poorly.

In the other AFC wild card game, rookie quarterback sensation Lamar Jackson performed even worse than Watson. The Chargers went into Baltimore and suffocated the Ravens potent read-option run offense, and they did it, improbably, by playing seven defense backs.

My hometown Seahawks came up short on the road in Dallas. Seattle should have notched a victory -- it was within the team's grasp -- if not for some excellent play by Cowboy quarterback Dak Prescott. I didn't see that coming. In the past Prescott has been just so-so in big games.

In the final wild card game of last weekend, the Foles magic carpet ride continued for Philly. The Bears, who I thought might be a dark horse favorite to go all the way, could not convert a last-second field goal. It must be a bitter pill to swallow for Chicago fans.

In this weekend's divisional round, Hoffman is once again going all in with favorites, except for one match-up, the Chargers-Patriots game in Foxborough.

After my woeful 1-3 showing last week, I'm going to switch things up and pick not personal favorites but those teams who I believe will win. Last weekend that would have resulted in my going with Hoffman's picks.

But I think Hoffman is off the mark in the divisional round. In the first game of the divisional playoff round, Hoffman acknowledges that Kansas City's defense is poor, and that the unsung Colt's defense is excellent; nonetheless, he predicts a Chiefs win.

Don't get me wrong. I hope Kansas City wins. Pat Mahomes, more than any other single player, turned the NFL ratings drop around this season. An angel-faced quarterback phenom who brought Harlem Globetrotter moves to the gridiron, Mahomes is a breath of fresh air. Most -- myself and Tom Brady included -- saw no end to the NFL hemhorrhaging viewers; but last weekend's wild card games saw a 12-percent increase over last year. That's big, and I believe renewed interest in the NFL is primarily attributable to Mahomes' stewardship of Kansas City's high-powered offense.

My problem with picking the Chiefs is that they're not that good. Seattle's Week 16 win provides a blueprint on how to beat Kansas City. Play ball-control offense and rush the passer on defense. The Colts can do both. Indianapolis is easily the hottest team in the AFC over the last two months. Take the Colts.

For the Saturday night game, Hoffman is taking the Rams in the L.A. Coliseum over the visiting Cowboys.

The Rams, like the Chiefs, have an electric offense, and the team deserves some credit in helping to turn the ratings drop around this season. But over the last month or so the rest of the league has figured out how to beat L.A.: shut down running back Todd Gurley (who, by the way, is nursing two bad knees), double- or triple-team Rams disruptive defensive tackle Aaron Donald, and let Jared Goff try to beat you throwing the ball.

Goff has yet to prove that he can put the club on his shoulders and win the game. The Rams play a lateral motion speed game. The young Cowboys defense is particularly well-suited for this. Dallas has strong pass rushers, fast linebackers and good corner backs. Dak Prescott, unlike Jared Goff, has proven he can deliver in crunch time of a playoff game; plus, the L.A. defense is weak against the run; that's how Seattle managed to stay close to the Rams in both games this season. The Seahawks ran the ball up the gut of the L.A. defense. With the betting line at Rams by a touchdown, if I were in Las Vegas I would put a couple hundred bucks on Dallas. That's how confident I am about this one. Take the Cowboys.

As I confided in my write-up of the regular season, my fear is that the Patriots are headed for another Super Bowl appearance. Perennially this is the doomsday scenario. New England secures home field for the playoffs and mops up all-comers who travel to Foxborough in January. This January's doomsday scenario shakes out as follows: Colts beat Chiefs; Pats beat Chargers. The young Colts, overawed by the super-historical stature of Brady/Belichik, travel to frigid New England and hatch a turd. Andrew Luck can't beat the Patriots. Think Deflate Gate.

But first New England has to best the Chargers. Hoffman likes Philip Rivers, and he is picking the Chargers for the one upset of the divisional round.

I wish. I would love to see Anthony Lynn hand Bill Belichik his hat. But New England's defense is better than people think, and the Chargers defense is not going to surprise Tom Brady like they did Lamar Jackson. Plus, I think Patriots running backs Sony Michel and James White are going to have a big day. Asking big bodies to jet coast-to-coast in back-to-back weeks is tough. Take the Patriots.

The final game of the divisional playoff round is at the Louisiana Superdome. The Saints are favored by eight points over the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles. It is the largest spread of any of the divisional round games. Hoffman is going with New Orleans. And that's a pick that has a lot going for it. The Saints have a good defense, Drew Brees and two good running backs. I am concerned about Philadelphia's corner backs. If Mitch Trubisky can torch the Philly secondary, what do you think Drew Brees is going to do?

But at this point Nick Foles is what qualifies as an apotheosis in our alienated, fallen age. Let the scared triumph over the profane! Take the Eagles.