Is Peace Breaking Out in Afghanistan?

Thursday Afghan president Ashraf Ghani announced a unilateral ceasefire. Saturday the Taliban reciprocated. According to The Long War Journal, "Whereas the government announced that its unilateral ceasefire will last until June 20, the Taliban’s order covers just 'the first, second and third day of Eid' — meaning a shorter timeframe."

Reading Mujib Mashal's "Afghan Leader Declares Brief, Unilateral Cease-Fire in Taliban Fight," published Thursday, one can't help but come away with the opinion that what Ghani is doing is calling a timeout to give his winded team a breather and prevent the opposition from running up the score:

Some analysts feared that not enough thought had gone into how a cease-fire might play out at a time when the war has spread to nearly half of Afghanistan’s 34 provinces. The presence of many militant groups makes the task much harder for a force stretched by daily fighting.

“Fighting is ongoing in 15 provinces, and the Afghan president announces the cease-fire,” said Atiqullah Amarkhel, a retired Afghan general and military analyst.

“Unilateral cease-fires are not helpful,” Mr. Amarkhel said. “Don’t forget that already the Afghan Army isn’t attacking — it is defending. It will confuse the Afghan forces, the Taliban will attack and gain more, and it will affect the morale of the Afghan forces.”

But Borhan Osman, a senior analyst for the International Crisis Group in Afghanistan, said a cease-fire might be an effective countermove at a time when “more than 90 percent of the attacks in Afghanistan are initiated by the insurgency.”

With the government already on the defensive, Mr. Osman said, it might as well use a cease-fire to build trust with the Taliban and test their seriousness about negotiating peace. The Taliban have yet to offer a clear response to the peace plan that Mr. Ghani offered months ago.

“The Taliban have always expressed concern that the government is not serious about peace, and not coherent enough to be a reliable partner for talks,” Mr. Osman said. “Today’s announcement could be a step toward addressing those worries, showing that Mr. Ghani as commander in chief has the power to halt offensives by all pro-government forces.”

Mushal's story from Saturday, "Taliban Announce Brief Cease-Fire, Offering Afghans Hope for Lull in War," convincingly places the Trump administration firmly behind the peace process:

Increasingly, senior Afghan officials and Western diplomats in Kabul believe the United States is willing to take a direct role in peace talks with the Taliban. Pakistan remains a key component of that.

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo spoke by phone with Pakistan’s powerful army chief, Gen. Qamar Javed Bajwa, a day before the cease-fire was announced. Gen. Bajwa is set to visit Kabul soon.

“We have asked for Pakistan’s assistance in facilitating a peace process, and we have sought to understand Pakistan’s own core security concerns and ensure that its interests are taken into account in any peace process,” said Lisa Curtis, who is in charge of Afghanistan and South Asia policy at the National Security Council. “The United States is ready to participate in the discussion, but we cannot serve as a substitute for the Afghan government and the Afghan people.”

Many saw the strong American role in the Afghan government’s cease-fire announcement as an indication of a more hands-on approach. Senior members of the Afghan government did not know of plans for a cease-fire until a couple days before they were announced.

Mr. Blanc, the former diplomat, said the urgency to show Mr. Trump some progress is palpable.

“There is a deep concern amongst the Americans who want to see the American commitment to Afghanistan remain, that Trump is going to pull the plug,” Mr. Blanc said. “The idea that potentially someone is working to do something dramatic — no question about it. I would be shocked if that wasn’t somebody’s calculation, whoever is in the driver’s seat here.”

It could be that the reason Afghan commanders had no clue about Ghani's ceasefire is that it was a last second diktat from Washington. It makes sense and is consistent with Trump's focus on 2020. If he can broker an end to the frozen conflict on the Korean Peninsula, as well as bring an end to the 17-year war in Afghanistan, it will be a potent argument for his reelection.

What is the Ghani peace plan on the table? It was something that came out of the Kabul Process in February. An opinion piece written by Hekmat Khalil Karzai vaguely describes some of its features:

The Afghan government is firmly committed to addressing the core concerns and demands of the Taliban, including the future presence of the international military forces, amendments to our constitution and the release of Taliban prisoners.

The initiative also offers removal of the names of Taliban commanders from the sanctions lists maintained by the United Nations and others, which limit their movements and hinder their inclusion into mainstream Afghan society and polity.

Throughout the peace process and after the end of hostilities, the Afghan government will ensure the security of the Taliban and their families and help resettle former combatants as part of an agreement.

The Taliban won't accept the presence of any foreign troops stationed on Afghan soil. A complete withdrawal is not something the U.S. military will abide. So the war will likely continue.