The Wave Won't Come

The GOP-controlled congress appears keen to turn the page on the shutdown politics that have dominated the nation for the last seven years. Democrats are willing to go along -- January's mini-shutdown proved to be a debacle for the party -- and they're hoping that Pelosi's eight-hour Dreamers speech yesterday on the House floor will somehow mollify and inspire #Resistance and make groups like Indivisible forget promises made that there would be no budget deal, no lifting of the debt limit, until the Dreamers were taken care of. Well, that's obviously not going to happen.

Thomas Kaplan provides the basics of the McConnell-Schumer budget deal in "Senate Leaders Reach Budget Deal to Raise Spending Over Two Years":

WASHINGTON — Senate leaders struck a far-reaching bipartisan agreement on Wednesday that would add hundreds of billions of dollars to military and domestic programs over the next two years while raising the federal debt limit, moving to end the cycle of fiscal showdowns that have roiled the Capitol.

The accord between Senators Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the majority leader, and Chuck Schumer of New York, his Democratic counterpart, would raise strict caps on military and domestic spending that were imposed in 2011 as part of a deal with President Barack Obama that was once seen as a key triumph for Republicans in Congress.

The deal would raise the spending caps by about $300 billion over two years. The limit on military spending would be increased by $80 billion in the current fiscal year and $85 billion in the next year, which begins Oct. 1. The limit on nondefense spending would increase by $63 billion this year and $68 billion next year.

[snip]

From the increase in domestic spending, Mr. Schumer said the deal includes $20 billion for infrastructure, $6 billion for the opioid crisis and mental health, $5.8 billion for child care and $4 billion for veterans hospitals and clinics. In addition, the deal includes almost $90 billion in disaster relief in response to last year’s hurricanes and wildfires.

The agreement includes an additional four-year extension of funding for the Children’s Health Insurance Program, on top of the six-year extension that Congress approved last month.

The deal also lifts the debt limit until March 2019, pushing any future confrontation over that issue until after the midterm elections. The Congressional Budget Office recently projected that the Treasury would probably run out of cash in the first half of March if the limit were not raised.

[snip]

The Senate was expected to vote on the deal on Thursday, with the House to follow afterward. It was not clear if enough Democrats would oppose the deal to imperil its passage in the House, given the likely opposition from at least some fiscal conservatives. If lawmakers cannot pass a temporary funding measure by the end of Thursday — either tied to the budget pact or by itself — the government would shut down for the second time this year.

Pelosi promises a "No" vote on the budget. But will she be able to bring enough rank'n'file Democrats with her -- after adding many likely Republican "No" votes from the Freedom Caucus -- to block the budget deal?

Highly unlikely. Pelosi's opposition is purely ceremonial. Democrats won't trigger another shutdown because they know that Trump will eat them alive.

So the Democrats are back to where they were before the rise of #Resistance. The Resistance has been foiled by Democratic leadership. Will this spur a break with the Democratic Party? That's the only move to make. A no-brainer, right?  But it's not going to happen.

What will happen is Democratic turnout will likely fall short in November. You need proof of live to go to the polls. And there's nothing alive about the Dems. The wave election will not appear.