Libya and Italian Elections

A long rambling article by Jo Becker and Eric Scmitt, "As Trump Wavers on Libya, an ISIS Haven, Russia Presses On," which ends up going nowhere, seems intent on making the reader frightened of Russian influence in North Africa without every explaining why that is something of which we should be afraid. You have to travel all the way to the last paragraph to get an inkling of what that fear is:

To many Libyans, though, the Trump administration’s strategy looks a lot like the Obama administration’s post-Benghazi “lead from behind” approach: carrying out reactive strikes while leaving the difficult tasks of reconciliation to the latest United Nations envoy. 

Current and former Libyan and American officials say that while there are no ready solutions for resolving Libya’s woes, a more engaged and effective American policy would include more frequent, highly visible diplomatic engagements with Libyan leaders; a new United States special envoy with a mandate to work closely with the rival Libyan factions; a seasoned diplomat to replace Peter W. Bodde, who retired at year’s end as Washington’s ambassador to Libya; closer support for European and United Nations-led efforts to reconcile the warring parties; and a greater number of Special Operations advisers on the ground. 

“We have clearly delegated all of our foreign policy in the Gulf and Libya to a coalition of Emirates, Saudi and Egyptians,” said Jason Pack, executive director of the U.S. Libya Business Association. “That’s essentially letting the Russians win in Libya because they support exactly the same groups.” 

The consequences, Mr. Pack added, are far-reaching. “Libya is important because of where it sits. He who can project power into Libya has the ability to deluge Europe with migrants and bring right-wing populists to power there, interfere in the market price of oil, and more.”

In less than a month Italians go to the polls to elect a new government. Right now a rightist coalition led by Berlusconi's Forza Italia has the best chance of forming a government. According to Jon Henley writing for The Guardian:

The Five Star Movement is set to be the single largest party with between 27 and 29% of the vote, but it has long ruled out forming a coalition with any of the traditional parties. In recent days, however, it has said it could reconsider in the event of an inconclusive result.

Berlusconi’s Forza Italia is on between 16 and 18%. His coalition with the Northern League on 12 to 14%, the Brothers of Italy on five to 6% and possibly Us with Italy on two to 3% could come within spitting distance of 40%.

On the left, Renzi’s centre-left alliance should manage a combined 26-28%. The Democratic party is on between 22 and 23%, and More Europe, Together Italy and Popular Civic List between four and 5%. Free and Equal is polling at around 6%.

A regional election in Sicily in November saw a Berlusconi-backed candidate win nearly 40% and the Democratic party less than 20%. In regional elections in June, the centre-right were also the big winnersand the Five Star Movement fared badly.

Add to this the high proportion of still-undecided voters and it is all but impossible to predict who will be governing Italy later this year.

There is a good chance that whomever takes power in Italy is going to be willing to publicly work with Russia. Immigration is a huge issue for Italians. Libya is the main transit point for refugees. Russia is attempting to stabilize the country, when all the U.S. manages is an occasional drone strike.

When will the European Union withdraw its sanctions on Russia? Maybe after the Italians vote.