Peace Prize Laureate Obama Wants to Give War a Chance in Ukraine

As the Ukrainian junta loses control of its Russian border in Donbass, it appears to be preparing for an exemplary battle in Slovyansk, a center of resistance to the putschists in Kiev. According to Sabrina Tavernise, "Border Guards in Ukraine Abandon Posts":

Ukraine’s military reported gains in the area around Slovyansk, a rebel stronghold that is now almost entirely encircled by government forces. 

On Tuesday, Ukrainian troops swept into the city of Krasny Liman, a railroad hub to the northeast of Slovyansk, seizing the southern half of the city and checking passports of local residents to find fighters, several residents said. The military has reported hundreds of rebel deaths. The rebels have put their losses at about a dozen. 

Ukraine’s border with Russia has become a focal point in the unrest in this country’s troubled East, as fresh supplies and fighters from Russia have been leaking across. An open passage would allow goods and fighters to flow from Russia unimpeded, significantly increasing the power of the insurgency here. 

A Ukrainian military spokesman, Vladislav Seleznyov, acknowledged that some of the border guards were no longer at their posts, but said that they had simply been moved to other locations because of a “sharp and sudden worsening of the situation,” according to a local news outlet. He did not say how many units had been moved, but said that they had been directed to stay near the border and that one unit had been in a firefight as it retreated. 

The military’s inability to come to the aid of the border guards speaks to the challenges faced in confronting the separatists across an expanse of territory in southeastern Ukraine and, ultimately, to restoring order to an area that seems increasingly incapable even of defending its own borders. 

To that end, officials in Kiev on Wednesday asked the National Security and Defense Council to consider imposing martial law in the area, which would help the military distinguish fighters from civilians by limiting movement and tightening document checks.

A declaration of martial law is of course an admission by the junta that the population of Donbass has been lost and now it is open season on civilians. With porous borders and sentiment in Russia fervently in support of Novorossiya, the Kiev regime is sure to lose. The only question at this point is whether Poroshenko is willing to destroy the east. Since Poroshenko is a businessman, and since much of Ukraine's industrial might lies in the east, one would think that he would stop short of total war, and so far that has been the case.

But the U.S. is calling the tune here. It has from the start. And the U.S., as can be seen from Syria, is more than willing to support brutal, prolonged conflict regardless of the long-term consequences to a region.

Obama arrives in Paris today to commemorate the 70th anniversary of the D-Day invasion. A topic of speculation is whether he will sidestep a meeting with Vlad Putin. The French having been trying to facilitate talks between the two. That the Nobel Peace Prize winner would avoid an opportunity to discuss Ukraine with the Russian head state can only mean that the U.S. wants to give war a chance.

When Obama was in Brussels yesterday to meet with the group formerly known as the G-8, the sanctions strategy going forward was debated. Peter Baker notes in "Obama, Seeking Unity on Russia, Meets Obstacles" that

The leaders used their dinner on Wednesday to discuss what might set off another, more expansive round of sanctions. Some Europeans want to keep new sanctions in their pocket, as they put it, to impose only if Russia escalates the situation, while others say Moscow should avoid new penalties only if it proactively works to stop pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine.

After a long discussion, the leaders left the question largely unresolved. In a joint statement, they again condemned Russia’s actions and called on the country to stop the flow of arms and fighters across its borders. But they did not specify what might prompt them to broaden their sanctions to target entire sectors of the Russian economy. Instead, they threatened “to impose further costs on Russia should events so require,” without elaboration.

The American position appears to be that Russia should be held responsible for the chaos caused by the U.S.-backed Kiev coup. This is reminiscent of the Israeli position in regards to the weak Palestinian Authority. All attacks by every little splinter Islamist group will be laid at the feet of the PA. It is coercion, plain and simple. Maybe the U.S. would prefer the Russian military return to the Ukrainian border in order to police it.

There is one telling quote today. It is from Andrew Roth's interview with Vostok Battalion commander Aleksandr Khodakovsky: "Everyone understands that this is a war between Russia and America, and we must be for one side or for the other.”