The Future State of Kurdistan + Navi Pillay Steps Out on al-Assad

This blog has been committed to following the war in Syria. Originally part of the wave of protests that made up the Arab Spring, the popular uprising in Syria has morphed into a military conflict that pits salafi jihadists, many of whom are foreigners supported by wealthy Gulf sheikhdoms, against the Baathist Syrian government and its allies, Hezbollah, Iran and the Shia of Iraq.

Syria, like Iraq, is a former League of Nations mandate country that originated in the secret 1916 Sykes-Picot Agreement by France and Britain divvying up the Ottoman Empire. The century-old boundaries that constitute the Middle East are fraying.

This morning there is an informative piece by Tim Arango and Clifford Krause, "Kurds’ Oil Deals With Turkey Raise Fears of Fissures in Iraq." Iraqi Kurds are cutting their own oils deals absent approval from Baghdad. A second pipeline to Turkey is in the works:

Even as sectarian killing is again spiking across Iraq, and the Syrian civil war destabilizes the region, American officials in Baghdad say the flow of oil to Turkey may be the greatest potential risk to Iraq’s cohesion. 

But a year-and-a-half-long diplomatic drive by the United States to stop the flow has so far failed, reflecting Washington’s diminished influence in the region, even with its two longtime allies. Not only will trucks continue to travel daily from the Kurdish region to two Turkish cities on the Mediterranean coast, and not only will the Kurds continue to deliver oil via a pipeline to Turkey, but the parties plan to build a second pipeline, whose details have been kept secret. 

“The Kurdistan deal with Turkey is a huge violation against the Iraqi Constitution because they didn’t make the deal with the coordination of the central government,” said Ali Dhari, the deputy chairman of the Iraqi Parliament’s oil and gas committee. “This means the stealing of the Iraqi wealth, and we will not allow it.” 

The oil accords with Turkey, potentially worth billions of dollars, are part of a broader effort by Iraqi Kurds in recent years to cut their own energy deals — including exploration agreements with foreign companies like Exxon Mobil, Chevron and Gazprom — that sidelined the central government. The Kurds, and the Turks, say they will pay Baghdad its fair share. But officials in the capital have long claimed such arrangements are illegal. 

The controversy is in part the unfinished business of the American occupation of Iraq. The failure of the Iraqi government to pass a national oil law, one of the benchmarks set by President George W. Bush when he announced the United States troop “surge” in 2007, has left Baghdad and Erbil, the Kurdish capital, in a perpetual feud over how to divide profits and who has the authority to make agreements with international oil companies.

Commentators on the Left warned that the U.S. invasion and occupation of Iraq would fracture the country, but no one in power ever listens to commentators on the Left. The fact that their insights more often than not prove to be correct does not earn them any respect from state officials.

Kurds are battling and defeating Al Qaeda in northeast Syria where an autonomous Kurdish administrative territory has been declared. With an understanding now in place with archfoe Turkey, the possibility of a future state of Kurdistan seems like a good bet. The Kurds have been shrewd; they're taking small bites and doing their best to stay under the radar; they're taking the long view. They are impressive.

What UN high commissioner for human rights Navi Pillay's statement the other day -- that there is massive evidence of war crimes and crimes against humanity by Bashar al-Assad and his government -- portends is hard to suss out. Pillay says that al-Assad should be referred to the International Criminal Court. Nick Cumming-Bruce has the story, "Top U.N. Rights Official Links Assad to Crimes in Syria":

Ms. Pillay said the panel had handed her lists of names to be held securely at the human rights office in Geneva. Ms. Pillay also repeated demands that she and the panel have made that the situation in Syria should be referred to the International Criminal Court in The Hague. 

“Accountability should be key priority of international community, and I want to make this point again and again as the Geneva 2 talks begin,” she said, alluding to the second international conference on Syria scheduled to start in Geneva on Jan. 22.

At the very least Pillay's broadside makes it more difficult for Western leaders to cozy up to the Baathists in Syria, something that has been underway since the September chemical weapons deal was signed; since then there has been a polar shift in the United States away from vilifying al-Assad and praising the opposition. It's hard to imagine a situation where Pillay stepped out on her own. It must be an attempt by the West to shape the outcome of Geneva II. Al-Assad can enter negotiations but any deal the West agrees to will not include al-Assad remaining the head of government. If he agrees to step down, the West can offer him freedom from prosecution in The Hague.