Uncle Sam Knuckles Down on Syrian National Coalition + Haqqani Network Fundraiser Assassinated

I would not take seriously the news emerging out of Istanbul that the Syrian National Coalition has agreed to attend the Geneva II peace talks. What appears to be going on is some linguistic pussyfooting to appease the West. Rather than demanding that the Baathist government of Bashar al-Assad step down prior to any peace talks, now the opposition's position is that any transitional government that emerges from Geneva cannot include al-Assad and his principals. Anne Barnard and Hwaida Saad have the story, "Leading Syrian Opposition Group, Yielding to Pressure, Votes to Join Peace Talks":

With the Monday vote, the coalition appeared to drop its demand that Mr. Assad step down before any talks. But it continued to insist that it would participate only if there are guarantees that the talks would lead to a full transfer of executive power, including over military and security forces, to a transitional government in which Mr. Assad and “those with blood on their hands” would have “no role.”

Other conditions stipulated by the National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces include the release of prisoners and full access to humanitarian aid.

This doesn't sound like a breakthrough that will enable substantive peace talks anytime soon. What is encouraging is the line currently coming from the U.S.:

Stoking tensions all around, Robert S. Ford, the United States ambassador to Syria, told the activists on the sidelines that the emerging reality presented them with unpalatable options: accept that the current government could continue in power longer than they would like, or face the continued rise of extremist jihadist groups that have terrified residents, clashed with rival insurgents and undermined Western support.

The U.S. is telling the opposition, "It's either ISIS or the regime," basically saying to the rebels, "Shit or get off the pot. The days of pretending to be a potent force while arguing in hotel conference rooms are over. Either go with the jihadis or sit down and talk to the Baathists in Geneva." It's about time.

Declan Walsh and Ihansullah Tipu Mehsud have an informative piece on the assassination of Nasiruddin Haqqani, chief fundraiser for the Haqqani network and scion of founder Jalaluddin Haqqani, who was gunned down last night outside a bread store on the outskirts of Islamabad:

The killing added to an impression of increased turbulence for the militant groups harbored in Pakistan’s tribal belt, including Al Qaeda, the Pakistani Taliban and the Haqqani network. Over just two months, one major leader has been arrested, two have been killed in a drone strike, and now a major financier — Mr. Haqqani — has died. 

The link, if any, between those events remains hidden in the miasma of tribal politics, skulduggery and treachery that has for centuries haunted the rugged frontier between Pakistan and Afghanistan. But many are taking the violence as a portent of increased upheaval as rival intelligence services and militant groups vie for power and influence ahead of the withdrawal of American combat troops from the region next year. 

The first major shot came when American forces detained Latif Mehsud, a senior commander for the Pakistani Taliban, inside Afghanistan. Weeks later, on Nov. 1, a C.I.A. drone strike killed the Pakistani Taliban’s leader, Hakimullah Mehsud, and a top deputy. Now, Mr. Haqqani, a looming figure in a militant network closely allied with the Taliban and Al Qaeda, is dead.

Nasiruddin Haqqani was a crucial link to Pakistan's ISI and funders in the GCC. The Haqqani network is aligned with the Afghan Taliban but is really a Saudi and ISI tool. More war can be expected in the tribal belt as jihadi factions positions themselves for the torrent of spoils to be reaped once the United States pulls out next year.