November Geneva II Peace Talks Likely Scuttled

Preparatory to his appearance in Riyadh today -- an act of contrition and obeisance to King Abdullah not only for the failure of the Obama administration to unleash the might of U.S. cruise missiles against Damascus but also Obama's recent phone call to Iranian president Hassan Rouhani -- American Secretary of State John Kerry was in Cairo to bless the coup engineered by the Egyptian generals.

Court scribe Michael Gordon has the story, "Egyptians Following Right Path, Kerry Says":

In substance as well as tone, Mr. Kerry’s visit to Egypt reflected the Obama administration’s determination to work with a military leadership that ruthlessly put down protesters from the Muslim Brotherhood, the Islamist movement that put forth the successful candidacy of President Mohamed Morsi, who was ousted on July 3. A military government, now firmly entrenched here, has promised to establish a civilian-led government. 

“The road map is being carried out to the best of our perception,” Mr. Kerry said, referring to the plan by the Egyptian authorities to conduct a national referendum on an amended Constitution and hold parliamentary and presidential elections by next spring. 

“There are questions we have here and there about one thing or another,” he added in a joint news conference with his Egyptian counterpart. “I think it’s important for all of us, until proven otherwise, to accept that this is the track Egypt is on and to work to help it to be able to achieve that.” 

But questions remained about the Egyptian military’s intentions and the degree of American influence. 

Mr. Kerry met with Egypt’s interim president, Adly Mansour, and Gen. Abdul-Fattah el-Sisi, the powerful minister of defense, who spearheaded the ouster of Mr. Morsi. But General Sisi and Mr. Mansour did not pledge that they would not extend Egypt’s state of emergency when it lapses on Nov. 14, as Mr. Kerry had requested.

Behind closed doors Kerry apparently assured the generals that the Obama administration was firmly behind them and the October decision to suspend delivery of high-tech weapons was merely a cosmetic one to mollify Congress.

Then Kerry was off to Saudi Arabia where he was quoted saying, "The Saudis are very, very important to all of us. The Saudis are really the senior player in the Arab world together with Egypt."

What to make of all this? First, as it relates to Egypt, the rollback of the Arab Spring, such a hopeful time, appears so far to be a success. Chalk one up for the Saudis and Israelis. Next, Kerry's boot-licking of King Abdullah bodes ill for the possibility of substantive peace talks in Geneva. The Saudi tantrum appears to have worked. All the prior preconditions thrown up by the London 11 but finessed somewhat in its October 22 communique are back in full force. The Syrian National Coalition says it will not attend unless prior to talks there is a date certain established when al-Assad will step down; that, and Iran cannot attend. This is from an Al Jazeera story "Future of Syria peace talks in question":

Syrian National Coalition President Ahmad Jarba said the opposition would not attend unless there was a clear timeframe for President Assad to leave power. He also said they could not accept the presence of Iran. 

"We have decided not to enter Geneva talks unless it is with dignity, and unless there is a successful transfer of power with a specific timeframe, and without the occupier Iran at the negotiating table," Jarba told an emergency meeting of the Arab League's foreign ministers in Cairo.

With Geneva II crossed off the calendar for November, Kerry's trip to Riyadh is likely meant to plot the continuing U.S.-Saudi covert war against Syria and Iraq. This is from a Reuters story this morning from Riyadh:

"The Saudis' position will not be changed until it's proven on the ground that the U.S. is changing its policy," said Mustafa Alani, an analyst at the Gulf Research Centre in Geneva. 

Saudi royals were also disappointed by Kerry's efforts in bringing about an agreement to disarm Syria's chemical arsenal in August after a gas attack in Damascus, Alani said.

"They want a clear commitment from the American side that Geneva 2 (peace talks) will not turn into 3, 4 and 5. And if this process fails to achieve the objective of removing Assad from power, the Americans should change their policy from diplomacy to changing the balance on the ground," he said.

The September setback for the warmongers appears to have been merely a temporary impediment.