"Deep Politics" Revealed

A must-read story that appears in today's New York Times is "Sudden Improvements in Egypt Suggest a Campaign to Undermine Morsi" by Ben Hubbard and David Kirkpatrick. The power outages, gasoline shortages and high crime due to absent police that marked Mohamed Morsi's presidency have miraculously disappeared in one week's time. It turns out that Tamarod, the youth movement that gathered over 20 million anti-Morsi signatures that culminated in the June 30 protest that preceded the coup, was critically underwritten by billionaire businessman Naguib Sawiris. According to Hubbard and Kirkpatrick,

Mr. Sawiris, one of Egypt’s richest men and a titan of the old establishment, said Wednesday that he had supported an upstart group called “tamarrod,” Arabic for “rebellion,” that led a petition drive seeking Mr. Morsi’s ouster. He donated use of the nationwide offices and infrastructure of the political party he built, the Free Egyptians. He provided publicity through his popular television network and his major interest in Egypt’s largest private newspaper. He even commissioned the production of a popular music video that played heavily on his network. 

“Tamarrod did not even know it was me!” he said. “I am not ashamed of it.” 

He said he had publicly predicted that ousting Mr. Morsi would bolster Egypt’s sputtering economy because it would bring in billions of dollars in aid from oil-rich monarchies afraid that the Islamist movement might spread to their shores. By Wednesday, a total of $12 billion had flowed in from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait. “That will take us for 12 months with no problem,” Mr. Sawiris said.

I was always a little skeptical, having done a fair amount of signature gathering in my day, about the ability of Tamarod to orchestrate a huge petition drive solely on a volunteer, grass-roots basis. Refreshingly, in relationship to what is transpiring in Egypt, I have seen mentioned in the last couple of days the "deep state." (Peter Dale Scott might be finally getting his due.) Thomas Friedman mentioned it in yesterday's column, "Egypt at the Brink":

The Brotherhood posits that “Islam is the answer.” The military favors a return to the deep state of old. But more religion alone is not the answer for Egypt today and while the military-dominated deep state may provide law and order and keep Islamists down, it can’t provide the kind of fresh thinking and educational, entrepreneurial, social and legal reforms needed to empower and unleash Egypt’s considerable human talent and brainpower.

Sharif Abdel Kouddous referred to it yesterday on Democracy Now! And then this morning, Hubbard and Kirkpatrick:

When Mr. Mubarak was removed after nearly 30 years in office in 2011, the bureaucracy he built stayed largely in place. Many business leaders, also a pillar of the old government, retained their wealth and influence. 

Despite coming to power through the freest elections in Egyptian history, Mr. Morsi was unable to extend his authority over the sprawling state apparatus, and his allies complained that what they called the “deep state” was undermining their efforts at governing. 

While he failed to broaden his appeal and build any kind of national consensus, he also faced an active campaign by those hostile to his leadership, including some of the wealthiest and most powerful pillars of the Mubarak era.

This is "deep politics," how the state really operates. I remember in the aftermath of the WTO protests how the police force pulled back and disappeared from my neighborhood, Capitol Hill, which was protester terra firma and a main source of resistance to the police and national guard crackdown.

It now appears that the Egyptian military does indeed plan to pursue a pre-Arab Spring approach to governing. It's rounding up and arresting Muslim Brotherhood leadership and continuing to detain protesters from the Monday morning massacre in Nasr City. David Kirkpatrick has the story, "Egypt’s Government Broadens Its Accusations Against Islamists."

The New York Times has a solid unsigned editorial which highlights the issues at play: the ongoing military crackdown on the Muslim Brotherhood and the flawed, hasty transition process announced on Tuesday and how both will likely result in civil war. At this point, the way things are shaping up, with the military -- bankrolled by Saudi Arabia, U.A.E. and Kuwait -- seemingly committed to rolling back the Arab Spring, the choice appears to be violence or obeisance.