Standard Narrative of Obama's Efforts to Aid Rebels

A story appears this morning in the New York Times, "No Quick Impact in U.S. Arms Plan for Syria Rebels," by Mark Mazzetti, Eric Schmitt and Erin Banco, that paints a picture of an Obama administration purposely slow walking its support of the Syrian opposition:

In fact, the officials said, the administration’s plans to use the C.I.A. to covertly train and arm the rebels could take months to have any impact on a chaotic battlefield. Many officials believe the assistance is unlikely to bolster the rebellion enough to push President Bashar al-Assad of Syria to the negotiating table. 

The plans call for the C.I.A. to supply only small arms, and to only a limited segment of the opposition — the actual numbers are unclear. In addition, much of the training, which is to take place over months in Jordan and Turkey, has not yet started, partly because of Congressional objections.

The cautious approach reflects the continued ambivalence and internal divisions of an administration that still has little appetite for intervention in Syria, but has been backed into a corner after American and European spy agencies concluded that Syrian government troops had used chemical weapons against the rebels. Mr. Obama had declared the use of chemical weapons to be a “red line” leading to American action. 

Many in the administration say they are still seeking to satisfy themselves that they have taken all precautions possible to prevent weapons from falling into the hands of Islamic extremists in Syria. To them, the plan carries echoes of previous American efforts to arm rebels in Angola, Nicaragua and elsewhere, many of which backfired. There is also fear at the White House that Mr. Obama will be dragged into another war in the Middle East. 

But others, particularly many in the State Department, argue that the United States must intervene to prevent a further deterioration of security in the region and to stop a humanitarian crisis that is spiraling out of control, officials said.

This is the standard narrative: Obama, cornered because of a foolish statement about chemical weapons use crossing a "red line," agrees to arm, but not with heavy weapons, a Free Syrian Army that is more a creature of the hotel conference room than the battlefield; but actually Obama's decision is mostly show, a public display of appeasing the hawks among the Gulf Arab monarchies and in the State Department.

How much of this standard narrative is true and how much is Obama administration public relations remains to be seen. An argument can be made that as the situation in northern Syria moves closer to an Afghanistan-esque failed state as FSA rebels battle Al Qaeda and with fighters from the Pakistani Taliban arriving to wage jihad against al-Assad, Obama is engaging in damage control. One thing that the Mazzetti et al. story mentions, and that I've seen reported elsewhere recently, is that Congress -- the doves, not the usual hawks -- is beginning to buck. Apparently CIA director John Brennan and VP Joe Biden have been jawboning legislators to get the military aid moving:

The plan — made possible after Mr. Obama signed a secret “finding” that circumvents international laws prohibiting lethal support to groups trying to overthrow a sitting government — continues to face bipartisan skepticism in Congress. 

“It’s not clear to me that the administration has a workable policy,” Senator Susan Collins, a Maine Republican on the Intelligence Committee, said last week. 

Senior officials, including Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. and the C.I.A. director, John O. Brennan, have lobbied lawmakers in closed briefings and personal phone calls since late June. On Sunday, a senior administration official said that the Congressional concerns had been addressed and that “we look forward to pressing forward.” Some senior Congressional officials said Sunday that final details must still be worked out. 

The Congressional impasse has exposed other shortcomings in the administration’s approach, lawmakers and independent Syria specialists said.

The SAA appears to be pressing the attack. Agence France Presse reports government assaults in Idlib province in the north and the Qaboon district of Damascus.