Russian Aid Convoy a MacGuffin

Yesterday, Thursday, August 14, might be looked back on as the day Novorossiya died. Putin was in Yalta giving a speech to the State Duma; he said, “We will do all we can to end the conflict as soon as possible, to stop the bloodshed in Ukraine.” This was widely interpreted as Putin's capitulation. For instance, as quoted by Andrew Roth and Andrew Higgins in "Russian Convoy Draws Stern Warning From Ukraine and Stops Short of Border," Fyodor Lukyanov, the editor of Russia in Global Affairs, says “It was indirect confirmation that Russia will not intervene.”

But then you have the reports of Russian armored personnel carriers entering Ukraine near where the Russian aid convoy now sits at a military base outside the town of Kamensk-Shakhtinsky. The junta says that Ukrainian border guards are inspecting the trucks; others within the junta deny this. This is from a recently filed story by Higgins and Roth, "Border Inspection of Russian Convoy Begins, Ukrainian Military Says":

The Ukrainian military announced Friday that border guards had begun checking the contents of a convoy of more than 250 Russian trucks said to be carrying humanitarian supplies, but other officials said the trucks had not moved from a Russian military base where they were parked and inspections had not yet begun. 

In a statement posted on the military’s Facebook page, officials said that 59 customs officers would inspect the trucks on the Russian side of the border before the convoy would be allowed to proceed to the eastern Ukrainian city of Luhansk, currently controlled by pro-Russian separatists and suffering from shortages of food, water and electricity.

The statement said the inspectors included 41 representatives of Ukraine’s border control service and another 18 from customs.

But other Ukrainian officials said that the trucks had not moved from the Russian Army post to the border town where inspections were set to take place. The officials said that Ukraine was waiting for documents from the International Committee of the Red Cross, which was in turn awaiting documents from Moscow.

I have been of the opinion that the fate of this aid convoy will tell us a lot about the future of Novorossiya. If the junta allows it across the border and it rumbles on into Luhansk without an incident, offloads its cargo of cereal and sleeping bags with a temporary lull in the shelling and then returns to Moscow, Kiev will have won and Putin will have clearly telegraphed that the rebellion is over.

If, however, the junta, which is anarchic and prone to enormous gaffes, fucks up and escalates its conflict with Russia, as it did in a bellicose response to Putin's pacific Crimea speech, by perhaps shelling the convoy, mistakenly or not, or seizing it, then, well, it is hard to say.

But more and more the Russia's humanitarian aid caravan seems to be a classic MacGuffin, a plot device going nowhere meant only to distract.

Which brings us back to yesterday. The big news was Igor Strelkov, military mastermind of the Novorossiyan forces, was reported to be seriously wounded, and then he was reported to have been replaced. The Gray Lady reported the latter:

The Ukrainian military has made steady progress in recent weeks, with Mr. Lysenko, the military spokesman, asserting on Thursday that territory controlled by the rebels had shrunk to a fifth the size of what it was earlier this year. He also said the rebel leadership faced growing disarray in its ranks, a claim that was bolstered Thursday by the resignation of Igor Strelkov, one of the top separatist leaders, as “defense minister” of a rebel enclave in Donetsk.

This was followed by a report by Colonel Cassad where he offered the opinion that Strelkov's absence was only temporary and that he would return within a week. Several commentators took this information as proof that reports of Strelkov's near-death injury and sacking were junta fabrications meant to sow discord in the rebel ranks.

Niqnaq, who has been so good on keeping everyone abreast on all aspects of the war for Novorossiya, posted a translation of Russian philosopher Aleksandr Dugin's interpretation of events. Dugin thinks Novorossiya has been sold out by the Kremlin. The battle now is between a crushing defeat delivered by the junta personified by "Kolomoisky with the Right Sector" backed up by neocons in the Obama administration versus an Akhmetov-led truce followed by folding the Donbass back under Kiev's wing: "The position of Akhmetov is: a truce in exchange for a United Ukraine. The position Kolomoisky is: take it all, and immediately. And tomorrow Crimea."

In any event, the situation in Luhansk is dire. A ceasefire must come shortly or there will be a great deal of death. Andrew Kramer reports from the besieged city:

Luhansk is indeed a grim place, besieged and partly abandoned, with no electricity or running water, where hospitals are packed and the streets are patrolled by twitchy gunmen looking for spies. 

But the shelling remains the greatest danger and the most trying aspect of daily life. The separatist government reported Thursday that 40 people had been killed in the shelling in the previous 24 hours. 

On the main boulevard, rebels tear about in trucks mounted with Grad rocket launchers, moving from one site to another inside the city, to avoid the inevitable return fire. 

The Ukrainian forces are in the countryside all about, dug into positions in the open steppe. In their trenches and armored vehicles, they are all but impervious to even the most intensive rebel shelling.

Industrial Workers Control Mariupol: Part PR, Part Preparation for Presidential Poll

Yesterday afternoon on its web site the New York Times headlined a story by Andrew Kramer reporting from Mariupol about a stunning turnabout for the pro-federalization forces occupying the eastern Ukrainian port city. Steelworkers and miners working for companies owned by Ukrainian oligarch Rinat Akhmetov dispersed "pro-Russian militants," removing with heavy equipment barricades set up around town and establishing regular foot patrols. The story ledes the "newspaper of record" this morning.

Here is how Kramer opens "Workers Seize City in Eastern Ukraine From Separatists":

MARIUPOL, Ukraine — Thousands of steelworkers fanned out on Thursday through the city of Mariupol, establishing control over the streets and banishing the pro-Kremlin militants who until recently had seemed to be consolidating their grip on power, dealing a setback to Russia and possibly reversing the momentum in eastern Ukraine.

By late Thursday, miners and steelworkers had deployed in at least five cities, including the regional capital, Donetsk. They had not, however, become the dominant force there that they were in Mariupol, the region’s second-largest city and the site last week of a bloody confrontation between Ukrainian troops and pro-Russian militants.

While it was still far too early to say the tide had turned in eastern Ukraine, the day’s events were a blow to separatists who recently seized control here and in a dozen or so other cities and who held a referendum on independence on Sunday. Backed by the Russian propaganda machine and by 40,000 Russian troops just over the border, their grip on power seemed to be tightening every day.

The third paragraph gives Kramer away. He is engaged in tendentious reporting here. If you scan Google News this morning you'll struggle to find one link to the Gray Lady's blue-collar-Mariupol-liberation bombshell. Read to the end of the article and what jumps out is that the meat of the story is built out of quotes delivered up by chief executives of Metinvest, Yuri Ryzhenkov, and Ilyich Steel Works, Yuri Zincheko. Kramer doesn't bother with one quote from a routed pro-federalization occupier.

So you have the boss's point of view blasted far and wide "in all the news that is fit to print." This is pure public relations, inspired no doubt by the success of the People's Republic of Donetsk poll last Sunday. This is the Kiev junta's riposte, a way of saying, "See, we really have the hearts and minds of the people of the east, not the 'terrorists' and their Russian handlers."

One must be mindful here of the history of the Central Intelligence Agency using sectors of the industrialized work force to carry out its agenda. Mossadegh in Iran, Allende in Chile, Chavez in Venezuela -- all were destabilized in part by militant labor actions. There is no reason to believe that what is happening in Mariupol is any different. We know that Brennan is taking a hands-on role in the response to the uprising in Donbass.

It is too early to tell how this will play out. If you read the Kramer story closely you come away with the opinion that the miners and steelworkers employed by Akhmetov are doing what they are told. They are not operating zealously. I think this is a way for Kiev/Washington to stabilize the east prior to the May 25 presidential election. The junta and their backers in the Obama administration want that election to come off without a hitch.