COVID Efflorescence

The number of confirmed coronavirus cases yesterday rocketed past 9 million as the pandemic accelerates in every corner of the world, an increase of one million cases in seven days. The number of known deaths now stands at more than 469,000. Both these figures are on track to surpass the ghastly milestones of 10 million cases and 500,000 deaths later this week.

The sharpest uptick in new cases continues to be in Eastern Europe, South Asia, North America and South America. The United States has the most new cases of any country, closely followed by and sometimes exceeded by Brazil. And while India has a lower count of new cases, that number is increasing sharply, and the official figures are undoubtedly a gross underestimate in a country of 1.3 billion people with only rudimentary health care infrastructure.

These countries similarly lead the world in number of new deaths, along with Chile, Peru, Russia, Pakistan, the United Kingdom and Iran. Globally, the seven-day moving average of daily deaths has never gone below 4,000 since the beginning of April and is again trending upwards. The seven-day moving average of daily cases has not gone below 100,000 since March 27 and will soon surpass 150,000.

The dangers of the pandemic were sharply expressed on yesterday’s edition of NBC’s “Meet the Press” program by Dr. Michael Osterholm, the director of the Center of Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota. “I don’t think this is going to slow down. I’m not sure the influenza analogy applies anymore,” he said, developing his position from his earlier work which attempted to model the spread of the coronavirus based on how the flu spreads. “I don’t think we’re going to see one, two and three waves—I think we’re just going to see one very, very difficult forest fire of cases.”

Dr. Scott Gottlieb, a former commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration, noted on CBS’s Face the Nation: “We’re seeing the positivity rates go up. That’s a clear indication there is now community spread underway, and this isn’t just a function of testing more.”

Bryan Dyne, "World coronavirus cases rocket past 9 million as pandemic accelerates"