First, if May can get a third meaningful vote in the House of Commons on her withdrawal agreement (in other words, if Speaker Bercow reverses himself and allows a third vote), and the third time proves to be a charm and her agreement is miraculously approved, then the UK has until May 22 to leave the EU, an additional two months that will be needed to pass various supporting legislation disentangling Great Britain from the bloc.
If May fails for a third time, and there is almost no hint that she will succeed, then the EU has granted a delay until April 12, apparently the last possible date to avoid participation in elections for the European Parliament, to provide time for an alternative proposal to the withdrawal agreement. A second Brexit referendum and a general election were mentioned. If the UK can come up with such a substantive path forward, then the EU will grant a lengthy extension.
So, yes, the EU has thrown the UK a lifeline. The no confidence vote in January should have ousted May. That was the rational decision. But all the Tories who had voted against her withdrawal agreement stuck with the prime minister knowing that having a zombie as the head of government served their intention of impasse and crash out. New elections are to be avoided at all costs.
Nothing has changed this underlying dynamic. One good thing though is that after the withdrawal agreement fails for the third time, Labour will almost certainly make a motion of no confidence in the government. I was under the impression that May was safe for a year from another no confidence vote, but that pertains only to her party organization. The opposition can make as many no confidence motions as it pleases.
Since May admitted in Brussels yesterday that she has no alternative to the current withdrawal agreement, as soon as it fails next week, Labour must make its no confidence motion to prevent May from chewing up any of the remaining two weeks before the new crash-out date, April 12
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