Tuesday, March 26, 2019

Brexit: Indicative Votes Tomorrow

The Brexit goalposts have been moved. The crash-out date has been pushed back from Friday to April 12.

Prime minister Theresa May has delayed bringing her withdrawal agreement before the House of Commons for a third "meaningful" vote. The thinking now is that May will reintroduce her divorce deal later in the week. Tomorrow the House of Commons will hold a series of "indicative" votes on alternatives to May's proposal. Those alternatives likely will include a customs union (soft Brexit), another referendum, or revoking Brexit outright.

As Stephen Castle reports in "Parliament Grabs Control of Brexit From a Wounded Theresa May":
Mrs. May is still hoping that no alternative will command more support than her blueprint, giving her a realistic shot at pushing her plan through by presenting it as the only alternative to a no-deal Brexit or a long extension.
Critics think that Mrs. May is favoring the interests of her Conservative Party by being willing to contemplate a no-deal Brexit — something hard-line pro-Brexit Tory lawmakers back — over a cross-party effort to produce a softer Brexit that might win approval from Parliament but would split the Tories and possibly precipitate a second election.
On the other hand, moderate voices in the party complain that allowing a no-deal Brexit against much opposition would be a risky move that could haunt the party for years to come.
There is a chance that a soft Brexit might garner a majority tomorrow. May is trying to beat that back by saying that a soft Brexit will precipitate elections.

It is important to remember that Brexit terra firma is erected on the avoidance of a general election.

But with head of the zombie May hanging by a string elections appear to be inevitable; to avoid them -- to usher May out without holding a general election -- would require a miracle.

On the other hand, Yves Smith interprets recent events as too little, too late to avoid a crash-out. See "Brexit: Controlled Flight into Terrain."

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