Exit Polls Looking Good for Five Star Movement

UPDATE IV: A tweet from Antonello Guerrera is being hailed as the best summation so far of the Italian general election of 2018:

- M5S 1st party 

- Centre-right 1st coalition 

- Italy split in 3 

- Populist & anti-eurosceptic front close to 50% of votes 

- Renzi's PD collapsing

- Perfect hung parliament looming

Guerrero says that Renzi is likely to resign if the PD polls under 20%. We can only hope!

**** 

UPDATE III: Plenty of "fear and loathing" ahead from the prestige press over the badly hung parliament. But there is this helpful Guardian thumbnail sketch of the Five Star Movement. M5S is deemed a false-consciousness party by socialists and communists, a stalking horse for fascists. I have never seen M5S that way. I have seen the party as purely an "anti" construct -- anti-neoliberalism, anti-neoconservatism, anti-"staus quo of the last 40 years." It refuses to hemmed in and defined. As I said the other day, the best hope for rejuvenating moribund democracy in the West is M5S and Labour's Momentum:

"So, what exactly is the Five Star Movement?

"The anti-establisment party, started by comedian Beppe Grillo, burst onto the political scene in 2012 and has gone from strength to strength. The 69-year-old remains a figurehead, though he has handed over leadership to sharp-suited disciple Luigi Di Maio.

"Since its beginnings, the party has experienced a meteoric rise to prominence amid an outpouring of frustration and anger towards mainstream political parties.

"The movement calls itself “the first and only political party based on online participation and direct democracy.” Using an internet portal called Rousseau, M5S uses online votes of members to decide its policies, draft legislation and candidates.

M5S is proposing a universal basic income of €780 ($963) a month for those living in poverty.

"M5S supports a hotchpotch of policies from across the political spectrum and has gained a reputation for political flip-flopping, leading their critics to brand them as immature and incompetent. The party had promised its supporters a referendum on leaving the eurozone, but has had a change of heart in recent months.

"M5S is currently projected to be the single party with the largest share of votes in the election. You can read more about its moment of truth here.

****

UPDATE II: The state broadcaster Rai's first seat projection:

Centre-right 225-265
M5S 195-235
Centre-left 115-155
LEU 12-20

The chatter about possible coalitions has already begun. One being discussed is between M5S and Renzi's establishment Democratic Party (PD). Absurd! For sure, one conclusion that won't be lost in the chatter is the continuing failure of the mainstream center. Italians have "gone native," with M5S and Lega (what used to be the Northern League) the parties on the rise. Matteo Salvini is definitely photogenic:

****

UPDATE: From Guardian Rome bureau chief Stephanie Kirchgaessner:

"The Five Star Movement, an anti-establishment party that was founded by former comedian Beppe Grillo and has voiced deep scepticism about the euro and Italy’s role in NATO, appeared to have won between 29-31% of the votes, according to the early exit polls."

****

Five Star Movement is topping the exit polls. From The Guardian:

Italy’s national public broadcaster, Rai, has roughly comparable numbers in its first exit poll: 

M5S 29%-32%

Forza Italia 13-16% 

Lega 13-16% 

PD 20.5-23.5%

In its live election coverage The Guardian has this helpful breakdown of the policy positions of the various parties in today's election -- far more illuminating (by leaps and bounds) than any reporting provided by "the newspaper of record." For instance, in none of its reporting -- and I'm going by memory here; I might have missed one Berlusconi story --did it mention that Forza Italia favors a universal basic income (and more generous than that proposed by M5S!). Really and truly, The New York Times has become inseparable from the USG.

Centre-right: Forza Italia, led by four-time prime minister Silvio Berlusconi, aims to introduce a “parallel currency” for domestic use, keeping the euro for international trade; have a single, flat rate income tax for companies and individuals; abolish housing, inheritance and road tax; double the minimum pension; introduce a minimum income of €1,000 a month for all and block new immigrant arrivals.

Radical right: The League (formerly the Northern League), led by Matteo Salvini, would also introduce a parallel currency; abolish the EU’s fiscal compact; bring in a flat tax for all at 15%; allow earlier retirement; repatriate 100,000 illegal immigrants a year; and reopen Italy’s brothels. Brothers of Italy, led by Giorgia Meloni, is a southern equivalent of the League with neofascist roots and similar policies.

Anti-establishment: The Five Star Movement, led by 31-year-old Luigi Di Maio, proposes a minimum monthly income of €780; raising the budget deficit; repealing 400 “useless” laws including labour and pension reforms to allow earlier retirement and make firing harder; raising taxes on energy companies and improving relations with Russia.

Centre-left: The Democratic party, led by former prime minister Matteo Renzi, proposes an increase in the minimum wage; negotiating to abolish the fiscal compact and raising the budget deficit to 3% of GDP so as to cut taxes and increase investment.

Left: Free and Equal is led by Pietro Grasso, and is a new party uniting smaller groups that left Renzi’s Democratic party. It proposes repealing labour and pension reforms and boosting public spending.