Status Quo Election in Catalonia

From Raphael Minder's "Catalonia Election Gives Separatists New Lift," which highlights the failure of conservative prime minister Mariano Rajoy:

The three main separatist parties won 70 of the 135 seats in the Catalan Parliament, official results showed. Over all, the separatists won only about 47 percent of the votes, according to the preliminary results, but they benefited from a voting system that favors their dominance in rural areas.

Their victory by no means assures success. The separatists are a fractious group, and they have already struggled in the past to agree on tactics and strategy. In recent weeks, their disagreements have become more profound, after their failed independence push in October.

The separatist parties may now find themselves facing a difficult round of negotiations to decide who should lead Catalonia’s government and how to put their secessionist project back on track.

The leaders of the two main separatist parties campaigned from outside Catalonia — one from prison in Madrid and the other from a self-imposed exile in Belgium — and both face prosecution for rebellion after a botched attempt to flout Spain’s Constitution and declare unilateral independence.

Yet their sense of vindication at the outcome was undisguised.

Speaking from Brussels around midnight, Carles Puigdemont, the former leader of Catalonia who was removed by Mr. Rajoy, said Thursday’s record turnout of about 83 percent had produced “an indisputable result” in favor of the separatists.

[snip]

Mr. Rajoy’s Popular Party earned just three seats and ended up last among the main unionist parties. It was the biggest loser of the night.

Instead, most unionist votes went to Ciudadanos, a rival party on which Mr. Rajoy already depends to keep his minority government alive in Madrid. The advance of Ciudadanos will make it the largest party in the next Catalan Parliament.

Inés Arrimadas, the leading candidate of Ciudadanos, said her party’s win, coupled with the slight weakening in support for the separatist parties, confirmed that the independence movement “doesn’t represent a future for all Catalans.”

“The nationalist parties can never again speak in the name of all Catalans,” she added.

Analysts saw potential losers and pitfalls all around, however, given the narrowness of the separatist victory and the political gulf it indicated in both Catalonia and the country.

The election outcome was “another unwanted result of years of inaction” by Mr. Rajoy in Catalonia, said Jordi Sevilla, a former Socialist minister.

Mr. Sevilla forecast that Catalonia could require another election because of infighting among the separatist parties, while Mr. Rajoy would be forced into an early national election following his failure to solve the Catalan conflict.