Catalan Elections Today

There are elections in Catalonia today. Scheduled by the national government in Madrid as part of its takeover of Catalonia back in October following an independence vote, there appears to be no consensus regarding the outcome of the vote.

The story by Raphael Minder, "Catalonia Votes Again, This Time in a Gamble to Stall Its Secessionists," unfolds in two parts. First, it establishes that no clear outcome is foreseen, which Minder accomplishes by pulling a quote from El País:

“The result looks very uncertain and even once we know Thursday’s result, I expect more uncertainty rather than clarity,” said Kiko Llaneras, a political data analyst and journalist who published a study on Tuesday for the newspaper El País compiling various recent polls.

Part two of the story puffs Catalonia Socialist leader Miquel Iceta as a potential kingmaker. The pro-independence coalition that had governed Catalonia is not running on a unified ticket in today's election. It's every man for himself. Carles Puigdemont is campaigning in Brussels not Barcelona, frightened that prime minister Mariano Rajoy might toss him in the clink if he sets foot back in his own country. Not a profile in courage.

Elections have the potential of producing surprising results. That's certainly been the case in the last couple of years, though in 2017 the neoliberals can crow about the results of the French presidential and parliamentary elections. Emmanuel Macron is the new tribune of TINA ("There is no alternative"). Now that the prevailing wisdom is that Angela Merkel is damaged goods, Macron is puffed regularly in the mainstream media. Macron, like German SPD leader Martin Schultz, is calling for greater European integration, the very opposite of the mood of the street.

The average working man and woman, regardless of ideologies of left and right, have arrived at a place of critical consciousness, I would argue, that disdains greater centralization of political decision making because they can sense -- thanks to a pattern of decades -- that it leads to their own immiseration.

Unfortunately for Catalan separatists, the ambient disdain for greater political centralization does not cleanly translate to a vote for independence. Independence requires courage, while voting is primarily guided by fear. Catalans are no doubt concerned about being punished if they support independence, and rightly so because you know they will be. Look at North Korea.