Crimea Secession a Done Deal U.S. Seeks to Move the Goal Posts

War is toxic to the body politic. It blots out all else. Day after day after day it fills the newspapers and airwaves. All other information becomes secondary. It is a horrible way to live.

For almost a month now we have been living this way, longer if you factor in the riots in Kiev that led up to the putsch that sent President Yanukovych fleeing from the capital.

Viewed from on high, it is a fairly simple story. There is an East-West split in Ukraine, the same one that fueled the 2004 Orange Revolution. The West won, took control of Kiev and quickly installed a pro-neoliberal government composed of the usual suspects from the Fatherland Party along with the neo-Nazi muscle (Svoboda, Right Sector) that led the street fighting on Independence Square. Russia reacted by asserting control of Crimea, home to its Black Sea Fleet. This Sunday, the historically Russian Crimea will conduct a referendum on whether to secede from Ukraine and join the Russian Federation.

The position of the West is that such a vote is illegal, a violation of international law and the Ukrainian Constitution. The West is largely silent about the legal status of the putsch government. Obama and Kerry intone that it is the legitimate government without mentioning its constitutional status because it is not constitutional. The Ukrainian Constitution outlines an impeachment process that must be followed in order to remove the president. Like in the U.S., a trial must be conducted. A trial must be conducted so evidence can be weighed. Running a man out of town for fear of his life is not a weighing of evidence. Nonetheless the United States' only argument for the legitimacy of the putsch government led by Arseniy Yatsenyuk and Oleksandr Turchynov seems to be that Yanukovych skipped town.

Speaking of Yatsenyuk, he was in Washington D.C. yesterday making the rounds. The stories this morning in the Gray Lady --  "Obama Makes Diplomatic Push to Defuse Crisis in Ukraine" by Peter Baker and Michael Gordon; "Kerry Plans 11th-Hour Meeting With Russians Over Crimea" by Michael Gordon -- leave the impression that the goal posts are being moved:

Mr. Kerry held out the hope that a political solution might be reached even though there have been no public hints of Russian flexibility. Even if the referendum in Crimea went ahead, he suggested, there might be a chance for a political solution if Russia stopped short of annexing the province. 

“There are a lot of variants here, which is why it is urgent that we have this conversation with the Russians,” he said.

That was from Kerry's testimony yesterday before the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Foreign Operations. And here is basically the same take from Obama and Yats:

Mr. Obama said Mr. Yatsenyuk told him that a new Ukrainian government formed after elections scheduled for May 25 could find ways to address Crimea’s concerns. “There is a constitutional process in place and a set of elections that they can move forward on that, in fact, could lead to different arrangements over time with the Crimean region,” Mr. Obama said. “But that is not something that can be done with the barrel of a gun pointed at you.” 

At a separate appearance later in the day, Mr. Yatsenyuk expressed willingness to consider concessions to Crimea. “We the Ukrainian government are ready to start a nationwide dialogue how to increase the rights of autonomous Republic of Crimea, starting with taxes and ending with other aspects like language issues,” he told an audience at the Atlantic Council.

The takeaway? The U.S. and its putschist quislings are writing off a Yes vote for secession this Sunday in Crimea. They are moving the goal posts to say that a Yes vote does not preclude continued negotiations; that a settlement on Crimea could include enhanced autonomy with guarantees for the Russian Black Sea Fleet. But the catch is that Russia will have to acknowledge the legitimacy of the putschists and bless their May 25 elections.

It is not going to happen. My read is that Russia no longer trusts the United States to deliver anything in good faith regarding Ukraine. Russia will now proceed to implement plans that it sees will bolster its national interest in its sphere and let the West react.

Merkel came forward with a tough statement against Russia yesterday, embracing the architecture of a New Cold War as dictated by the United States. My assessment is that this is a bluff. If big American business is actively lobbying against economic sanctions, what do you think German big business -- with far more exposure to Russia -- is doing?

Russia holds fast, stays strong -- and the North Atlantic alliance frays.