Joe Nocera's Oil Sands Sophistry

Before it vanishes forever from public memory, which hopefully will be soon, a few words of reproach for Joe Nocera's Tuesday column, How Not to Fix Climate Change. In it Nocera dismisses James Hansen, Bill McKibben, their campaign of civil disobedience designed to pressure Obama to block the Kelystone XL pipeline, even the idea that producing oil from tar sands would have much of an impact on the environment. As Nocera says, "And the climate change effects of tar sands oil are, all in all, pretty small."

The "pretty small" hyperlink included in the column online is to a Congressional Research Services report by Richard K. Lattanzio, "Canadian Oil Sands: Life-Cycle Assessments of Greenhouse Gas Emissions." A quick read of the report's summary reveals that, contrary to Nocera's assertion, the greenhouse gas emissions related to the production of oil from tar sands are not "pretty small":

A number of key studies in recent literature have expressed findings that the GHG [greenhouse gases] emissions intensities of Canadian oil sands crudes may be higher than those of other crudes imported, refined, and consumed in the United States. The studies identify two main reasons for the increase: (1) oil sands are heavier and more viscous than lighter crude oil types on average, and thus require more energy- and resource-intensive activities to extract; and (2) oil sands are compositionally deficient in hydrogen, and have a higher carbon, sulfur, and heavy metal content than lighter crude oil types on average, and thus require more processing to yield consumable fuels by U.S. standards.

And from the "Selected Findings from the Primary Published Studies" portion of the report here are two of the bullet points Lattanzio makes:

• discounting the final consumption phase of the life-cycle assessment (which can contribute up to 70%-80% of Well-to-Wheel emissions), Well-to-Tank (i.e., “production”) GHG emissions are, on average, 72%-111% higher for Canadian oil sands crude than for the weighted average of transportation fuels sold or distributed in the United States;

• the estimated effect of the proposed Keystone XL pipeline on the U.S. GHG footprint would be an increase of 3 million to 21 million metric tons of GHG emissions annually (equal to the annual GHG emissions from the combustion of fuels in approximately 588,000 to 4,061,000 passenger vehicles).

Apparently Nocera didn't read the report; or if he did, he doesn't think that adding the greenhouse-gas equivalent of several million automobiles to the road is a big deal. Which brings us to the tendentious nature of Nocera's column. For how can his readers know if pouring extra greenhouse gas into the atmosphere is a big or a small deal if he never lets on what the climate scientists are saying? To read Nocera one would think that climate change is analogous to the federal budget deficit, a theoretical problem becoming potentially hazardous decades down the road. But then again we can't say for sure because he never tells us what he thinks climate change is and what is at stake if global temperature continues to rise.

For an excellent synopsis of what we're talking about when we talk about climate change, check out this month's Monthly Review and the "Review of the Month" by John Bellamy Foster, "James Hansen and the Climate-Change Exit Strategy." Here are the first two paragraphs:

The world at present is fast approaching a climate cliff. Science tells us that an increase in global average temperature of 2°C (3.6° F) constitutes the planetary tipping point with respect to climate change, leading to irreversible changes beyond human control. A 2°C rise is sufficient to melt a significant portion of the world’s ice due to feedbacks that will hasten the melting. It will thus set the course to an ice-free world. Sea level will rise. Numerous islands will be threatened along with coastal regions throughout the globe. Extreme weather events (droughts, storms, floods) will be far more common. The paleoclimatic record shows that an increase in global average temperature of several degrees means that 50 percent or more of all species—plants and animals—will be driven to extinction. Global food crops will be negatively affected. For example, a 2011 report of the National Resource Council indicates that the U.S. corn (maize) crop, which accounts for 40 percent of the world’s total, will experience a 25 percent decline in average yield with a 2°C rise in temperature. 

A 2°C increase in global average temperature is associated with the emission of about one trillion metric tons of cumulative carbon emissions since the Industrial Revolution. A total of 566 billion metric tons of carbon have already been added to the atmosphere due to fossil fuel combustion, cement production, and land cover change since 1750. This sets up a carbon budget—the remaining tons of carbon that can be released without reaching the trillion metric ton mark—of less than 500 billion metric tons. Based on the record of emission rates over the last two decades it is estimated by climate scientists at Oxford University (associated with the website trillionthtonne.org) that we will emit the one-trillionth metric ton in twenty-eight years (this reflects a recent recalibration of the methodology resulting in a two-year reduction in the estimated timeline). We could, it is calculated, avoid emitting the trillionth ton if we were to decrease carbon emissions from this point on by about 2.4 percent a year. A truly safe response would require a drop in carbon emissions at more than twice that rate. The longer we wait the steeper the reductions will need to be.

While McKibben and company rallied against Keystone XL in D.C. this past Sunday, the story making the rounds is that Obama was golfing in Florida with key players in the Texas oil and gas industry. Nocera probably would see nothing wrong with this. And maybe there is an explanation that isn't malign. Nonetheless I feel compelled to end this morning's post with Funkadelic's "Maggot Brain (Alternate Mix)":