Peace Agreement with Taliban Needs to be Concluded by End of Summer

With the blessing of proconsul Zalmay Khalilzad, Afghan president Ashraf Ghani has created a "big tent" council to oversee negotiations with the Taliban. As Mujib Mashal and Fahim Abed point out in "Afghans Name Council to Ease Logjam on Talks With Taliban" heretofore the Taliban have refused to speak with official from Ghani's government:

The Taliban have refused to meet directly with representatives of the Afghan government, calling it a puppet of the United States. The Afghan government has insisted on nothing less than direct negotiations, criticizing any move by political groups to engage with the Taliban as giving the insurgents unwarranted legitimacy.

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Mohammed Umer Daudzai, a member of the council, said an informal meeting with the Taliban in Qatar, seen as an icebreaker, would go ahead. That meeting, set for mid-April and expected to be attended by more than a hundred Afghans from various parts of society, is intended as a trust-building measure.

“It was decided in today’s meeting that we will participate in the meeting in Qatar as a joint delegation,” Mr. Daudzai said. “A big delegation will go to Qatar to exchange views with the other side, which are the Taliban, but they will not negotiate. Negotiation is the next step.”

Easing Mr. Ghani’s concerns is the fact that since he leads the council overseeing the talks, his officials will be on the negotiating team when direct talks with the Taliban do begin. Government representatives are also likely to attend the large Qatar meeting.

The Taliban will get around their prohibition of negotiating with the puppet government by saying that they are dealing not with official representatives but people acting in an individual capacity.

The criticism of this "icebreaker" in Qatar is that it is merely a repeat of the February meeting in Moscow between "Afghan political elites" and the Taliban that was repudiated by Ghani. The only difference now is that Ghani is a major participant in the charade.

It is hard to see how Ghani survives. The presidential election has already been delayed twice this year; it is now set for September 28.

I am of the opinion that whatever ruse is hatched between the Taliban and the U.S. to hand over power it has to be completed before the end of summer because there is a very limited capacity to stage a viable presidential election.