U.S. Fully Behind Irrational Attempt to Roll Back Arab Spring

One thing that stands out in the reporting of yesterday's crackdown on the two Cairo sit-ins -- both in stories from David Kirpatrick and Alan Cowell as well as Kareem Fahim and Mayy El Sheikh -- is the number of people who were shot in the head and chest. Kill shots. The point of the coup government was not to peacefully disassemble the Muslim Brotherhood protest encampments, as the Interior Ministry had announced previously, it was to crush ruthlessly and sow terror:

Using heavy armor and deadly weapons, the army and the police swept into Rabaa al-Adawiya and another smaller encampment across town, in Nahda Square in Giza, in what was the third mass killing of civilians since the military took power on July 3. Like the other killings, the government’s gunmen appeared to strike their victims with terrible accuracy, with gunshots to the head and chest.

The New York Times Editorial Page gets it right when it calls this morning for an immediate cut off of military aid to Egypt:

With yet another blood bath in the streets of Cairo on Wednesday, Egypt’s ruling generals have demonstrated beyond any lingering doubt that they have no aptitude for, and apparently little interest in, guiding their country back to democracy. On the contrary, the political obtuseness of Gen. Abdul-Fattah el-Sisi, Egypt’s de facto leader, and the brutal repression he has unleashed now threaten to produce the worst of all possible outcomes to an already inflamed situation: a murderous civil war.

That would be a tragedy for Egypt, which until recently believed it was on a path to ending decades of repression and dictatorship. And it would be a foreign policy disaster for the United States. Egypt is the most populous and influential country in the Arab world. It is also Israel’s most strategically important neighbor. 

President Obama must make clear his unequivocal opposition to the Egyptian military’s conduct. He can do so by immediately suspending military aid and canceling joint military exercises scheduled for September. These steps can be reversed if the generals change their ways, but, until then, the United States should slam the door on an aid program that has provided the Egyptian military with a munificent $1.3 billion a year for decades. 

Those who argue that this aid gives the United States leverage can no longer do so with a straight face. Time and again, repeated phone calls from Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel to General Sisi asking for restraint and similar exhortations by Secretary of State John Kerry have been ignored.

This is the last coffin nail in the Obama presidency. Sure, he'll be around for another three-plus years. But his popularity and base of support will continue to erode, the only question is how precipitously.

Obama's success as a politician has always been his ability to tap into people's hopes that he represents something new, something different from the tired, old power politics practiced by elites on behalf of the enormously wealthy. His much ballyhooed speech in Cairo the first six months of his presidency is case in point. His praise for Islam and promised support of democracy have proven to be a complete sham.

Where was Obama yesterday when Egyptian security forces were gunning down protesters with American-supplied weapons? He was vacationing on Martha's Vineyard. According to "U.S. Condemns Crackdown but Announces No Policy Shift" by Mark Landler and Michael Gordon:

As his chief diplomat [John Kerry] was speaking of a “pivotal moment for Egypt,” the president was playing golf at a private club.

While I'm sure the U.S. would prefer the Muslim Brotherhood to "play nice" and participate in the formation of a new government, this does not mean that Obama will do anything to abandon the coup and the Egyptian military:

Analysts said the ferocity of the latest crackdown would put the White House’s strategy to its sternest test yet. “If it looks like the U.S. effectively colluded in a counterrevolution, then all the talk about democracy and Islam, about a new American relationship with the Islamic world, will be judged to have been the height of hypocrisy,” said Bruce O. Riedel, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.

The United States now stands fully exposed as behind the attempt to roll back the Arab Spring, an aggressively revanchist strategy that seems totally irrational. Can time be made to flow backwards? Obama, Israel and the Gulf Sheikhdoms are going to give it a shot.

Mubarakism is to be brought back in Egypt; in Syria, we're working alongside Wahhabi jihadis to create a caliphate; Iraq is being cracked by the same jihadis. The Middle East is descending into a maelstrom of war and destruction, and the United States under the leadership of a Nobel Peace Prize recipient is a co-conspirator.

My one little act of resistance yesterday is that I cancelled my monthly donation to Obama's 501(c)(4), Organizing for Action.

Police Attack Cairo Sit-Ins

Egyptian police moved on the two Muslim Brotherhood encampments in Cairo this morning at 7:00 AM, clearing Nahda Square across from Cairo University first and then moving on the main sit-in around the Rabaa al-Adawiya mosque in Nasr City. There is much dispute as to the number of people who have been killed. This is from the UK Mirror's blog:

While the Muslim Brotherhood has been criticised for suggesting more than 600 have died, there are some groups in Cairo who are quoting doctors in saying 2,200 supporters of Morsi are dead. This figure is not substantiated and not confirmed, but it illustrates how difficult it has been in getting 100% correct information concerning a death toll.

Street battles are ongoing in Cairo as well as other cities. It is being reported that some Christian churches have been set aflame in retribution.

The police attack on the sit-ins follows yesterday's news, reported by David Kirkpatrick and Mayy El Sheikh, of the appointment of 19 generals as provincial governors. Twenty-five governors were named; of the six civilians appointed, two are Mubarak loyalists.

It's hard to see how liberals can stand fast in solidarity with the coup government now.

Muslim Brotherhood's Mohamed Al Beltagy is speaking out forcefully, calling bullshit on the West for standing by "the bloody coup." His daughter was killed this morning at the Rabaa al-Adawiya mosque.

More Sit-Ins Planned

The Interior Ministry, the government department in control of the police and a mainstay for Mubarak loyalists, has outlined its purported strategy for dismantling the two sit-ins, one in Nasr City next to Rabaa al-Adawiya Mosque and the other in Nahda Square across from Cairo University. David Kirkpatrick has the story this morning, "Police Put Off Dispersal of Pro-Morsi Sit-Ins":

Interior Ministry officials said Sunday that they would move in slowly, gradually surrounding the sit-ins to cut off any shipments of food and water. The officials said they would eventually block any entrance but leave one exit open so that demonstrators could leave at will. 

After that, the ministry officials said, the police will gradually step up the use of nonlethal tactics, including tear gas and water cannons. But it was unclear whether the police intended to escalate their pressure over a matter of hours, days or weeks. 

How the police would handle resistance was another question, especially with both sides on edge after the recent deadly clashes. The demonstrators have already erected barricades and stored piles of rocks to throw at attackers. Birdshot pellets and homemade handguns have become increasingly common at Egyptian street protests, including among Islamists. 

Government officials have accused the Islamists of stockpiling weapons, although both sit-ins appear to be overwhelmingly peaceful. 

Brotherhood leaders said Sunday that their demonstrations would remain nonviolent even if the police moved in. Gehad el-Haddad, a Brotherhood spokesman, all but dared them to try. “If they try to disperse the sit-ins by force, we will just create a new sit-in, or multiple sit-ins,” he said. “It is the people who make the sit-ins, not the sit-ins that make the cause.”

With their reputation for organization, I'm sure the Muslim Brotherhood already has locations selected for multiple sit-ins. They appear to hold an advantage over the coup administration at this point. The fact that the crackdown has been called off up until now is proof of this. Strains in the coup administration are beginning to manifest themselves. Mohamed ElBaradei, the interim vice president and advocate of a "go-slow" approach on the sit-ins, has begun to be savaged in the coup press. According to Kirkpatrick,

Mr. ElBaradei is “dangerous to the people and the state,” a headline in a state-run newspaper recently declared. He is working for the Islamists to “thwart the revolution,” encouraging their “sabotaging” and destructive inclusion in politics, charged a columnist in the state-run newspaper Al Akhbar, laying out an attack still echoing through the privately owned news media as well. 

In a Twitter message on Sunday afternoon, he fired back at the news media attacks, calling them “desperate attempts to sustain tyranny.” He declined a request to comment.

Kirkpatrick reports that the Brotherhood is willing to sacrifice the Morsi presidency as long he is reinstated temporarily in order to swiftly transfer power, lending the whole sordid mess a look of legality.

It's highly unlikely this will be the outcome. On the one hand you have Saudi Arabia, Israel, U.A.E., and all they want is a return of Mubarakism. On the other hand, you have the United States and Europe, and they want some sort of accommodation with political Islam. The intelligence agencies of the West see that the Arab Spring has changed things irrevocably and that there's no going back.

Going forward, there will likely be an attempt to maintain the status quo. This means a gradual rather than a brutal crackdown on the two sit-ins, followed by a relocation of the sit-ins to another part of Cairo. The conflict will be kept simmering but all hell won't break loose. Of course, it goes without saying, there's always the possibility that all hell could break loose.