Sunday NFL Divisional Round Picks

Some takeaways from yesterday's games are 1) after losing three-out-four playoff games in the last three seasons, it's time to declare the Ravens offense led by phenom Lamar Jackson a dud in big single elimination contests; and 2) Green Bay is going to be tough to beat at home.

This afternoon we will have the opportunity to see how formidable the Cinderella Cleveland Browns are when they travel to Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Kansas City Chiefs (3:05 PM EST, CBS). The Chiefs over the course of the season have played at a higher level than any other football club. No defense has been able to shut down Pat Mahomes. I don't think the Browns will be the first. Take the Chiefs.

Today's Buccaneers vs. Saints matchup (6:40 PM EST, FOX) is being advertised as a battle of aged, future-hall-of-fame quarterbacks Tom Brady and Drew Brees. Despite beating Tampa twice this season and the game being played in the Superdome, New Orleans is only favored by a field goal, a testament to the hold that Tom Brady has over the mind of the tout.

I like the Saints at home. New Orleans has a strong defense and a multifaceted offense. Whenever I've seen the Bucs play this year it seems to me that Brady has struggled to establish a rhythm. In a contest of faculties between head coaches Sean Payton and Bruce Arians, I'll take the wily and vicious Sean Payton. Take the Saints.

Saturday NFL Divisional Round Picks

With the U.S. Capitol on lockdown in anticipation of more unrest what better way to spend the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday weekend than watching football on television? 

As I see it, two of the four divisional-round games this weekend are straightforward -- Los Angeles vs. Green Bay and Cleveland vs. Kansas City -- and two are tricky -- Baltimore vs. Buffalo and Tampa Bay vs. New Orleans.

The first game of the weekend is Rams vs. Packers (4:35 PM EST, FOX) in Wisconsin at Lambeau Field where it currently is 33 degrees with snow showers. The weather should tell us everything we need to know about this matchup. The Rams are banged up, and that includes quarterback Jared Goff, receiver Cooper Kupp and all-pro defensive lineman Aaron Donald. While rookie running back Cam Akers isn't listed on the injury report, he hobbled off the field last week in the 4th quarter against the Seahawks.

Any hope the Rams have of winning in Green Bay is entirely dependent upon Akers putting together the kind of game he had when he ran for 131 yards against the Seahawks. This would keep Aaron Rodgers on the sidelines and Goff from having to throw the ball in the snow with his injured hand. 

Though Green Bay's defense ranks behind Seattle's against the run, leading one to believe that the Rams can repeat their formula for victory -- a ground-and-pound offense married to a smothering defense -- my mind's eye looks back to Tennessee vs. Green Bay game at the end of December when the Packers limited rushing king Derrick Henry to just under 100 yards. 

This game boils down to Aaron Rodgers against the Los Angeles pass rush in the snow. My feeling is that Rodgers is so mobile and accurate he is going to pick apart the Rams. The line is Green Bay by 6.5. Take the Packers.

The primetime Ravens vs. Bills matchup (8:15 PM EST, NBC) is trickier. Some are confident that Buffalo will win; others, Baltimore. Most agree that the Bills have trouble stopping the run. In the game against the Colts last week, the Bills gave up a combined 150-plus yards to Indianapolis running backs Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines. Good running backs? Yes, absolutely. But with the Ravens we're talking about possibly the greatest rushing team of all time.

The big unknown here is how Lamar Jackson performs in primetime. He has a history of bed-shitting in the playoff spotlight. He played brilliantly against the Titans in the wild-card round. I love the guy, the way he plays the game, his unparalleled athleticism at the quarterback position (Michael Vick doesn't come close), his demeanor. But my concern is that Baltimore falls behind early and Jackson freezes.

But really I think this game boils down to how the Ravens defense handles Josh Allen. Allen was able to put the Bills on his shoulders at key moments against Indianapolis and carry Buffalo to victory. By the numbers Baltimore has a good pass defense, though, as it seemed to me, Ryan Tannehill carved up the Ravens with play action. The difference here is that the Bills don't have a Derrick Henry in the backfield to make the safeties bite on play action.

The line is Buffalo by 2.5 points. Take the Ravens.